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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4545
Loc: Orlando, FL
General Long Range Discussion
      Wed May 11 2022 01:28 PM

06Z GFS showing a western Caribbean disturbance moving in the Gulf in about 2 weeks, been off/and on, but something worth watching to see if it persists or if other models latch onto it. That said, it's highly unlikely to materialize. What these patterns usually indicate is the environment has a better than usual chance for something to develop during the long range time frame, but not that it will, and definitely not how it tracks even if it does.

In this case it means ether the western Caribbean or even more likely the eastern Pacific may see something get going in about two weeks. (The area for development is pretty large)


Edited by CFHC (Wed May 11 2022 05:59 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator Wed May 11 2022 01:28 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Thu May 19 2022 11:42 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Wed May 25 2022 01:47 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Fri May 27 2022 08:48 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Sat May 28 2022 09:54 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 09 2022 04:13 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion Robert   Tue Jun 21 2022 08:54 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Sat May 14 2022 11:41 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Sat May 14 2022 05:36 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Sun May 15 2022 11:53 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion EMS   Sun May 15 2022 12:20 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Mon May 16 2022 01:33 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion scottsvb   Mon May 16 2022 02:39 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Mon May 16 2022 03:29 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion scottsvb   Mon May 16 2022 04:25 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion scottsvb   Wed May 18 2022 04:14 AM

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