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Invest 95L in the Tropical Atlantic now has a 90% chance to develop over the next 7 days, and a 70% chance to do so in the next 48 hours. Recon scheduled for Sunday morning.a
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 302 (Idalia) , Major: 302 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 302 (Idalia) Major: 302 (Idalia)
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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: General Long Range Discussion
      Mon May 16 2022 10:39 AM

GFS always sees a May or June storm in the western caribbean every year with feedback erros and no other true model support after 84hrs... every year! Usually 95% of these develop in the far eastern Pacific if they do. Usual Atlantic systems develop off Florida or the caronlina near Bermuda as a subtropical system in May or early June. GFS again has no model support except again maybe something trying to develop near Mexico but on the pacific side. So until we get the Euro on board or at least the CMC in the western carribean within 3 days.. then I wouldn't take much grain of salt in the GFS after 84hrs

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator Mon May 16 2022 10:39 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Thu May 19 2022 07:42 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Wed May 25 2022 09:47 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Fri May 27 2022 04:48 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Sat May 28 2022 05:54 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 09 2022 12:13 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion Robert   Tue Jun 21 2022 04:54 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Sat May 14 2022 07:41 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Sat May 14 2022 01:36 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Sun May 15 2022 07:53 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion EMS   Sun May 15 2022 08:20 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Mon May 16 2022 09:33 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion scottsvb   Mon May 16 2022 10:39 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Mon May 16 2022 11:29 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion scottsvb   Mon May 16 2022 12:25 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Discussion scottsvb   Wed May 18 2022 12:14 AM

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