cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: 2022 Forecast Guesses
Tue May 31 2022 08:09 PM
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I expect another active season with overall anomalously favorable number of potential disturbances (waves, lows, etc.) coupled with lower shear, higher SSTs and higher humidity in the Atlantic in the aggregate.
As for US impacts, I anticipate a roughly 2-out-of-3 chance of higher than average numbers of hits, including that higher risk of direct hits. There also are some indications that the drought conditions in Texas could be loosening its grip, and perhaps there will be even greater numbers of TCs that form and/or move into the Gulf this year that aren't nearly as hampered by dry air entrainment from land in this region as looked more likely just a month ago, which would thus influence the overall intensity and rainfall totals for Gulf coast states impacted by TCs.
For season total numbers of TDs, Names, Hurricanes and Majors I'm looking for a range of
16-22 Depressions, 14-19 Storms of which 6-9 become Hurricanes of which 3-5 become Majors.
My best guess for this year's totals: 19 Depressions, 16 Names, 8 Hurricanes and 4 Majors
As a p.s., I lean into last week's Invest 90L being considered for addition post-season, potentially as a Depression or unnamed Storm, but my guess is not dependent on whatever happens there.
Good luck and have a safe season everyone!
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