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Kirk becomes farthest east Major for time of year on record. Leslie becomes record 5th name for any 24 Sep - 2 Oct on record in Atlantic basin. Very active period continues.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 6 (Helene) , Major: 6 (Helene) Florida - Any: 6 (Helene) Major: 6 (Helene)
Hur Kirk
ADV#18 5:00 pm EDT
21.1N 46.7W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 945mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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TS Leslie
ADV#6 5:00 pm EDT
10.1N 31.5W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 1001mb
Moving:
W at 6 mph
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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4622
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance
      Sun Aug 28 2022 07:15 PM

Models today have shown later development for this system, the 18z gfs shows a bend back toward the west after looking almost like a recurve, and the 12z euro slows it down and bends back southwest at the end of its run near the Bahamas. Most Ensembles do keep it out to sea however, but there's not a lot of confidence in that because a well defined center has yet to form, and the GFS is also insisting on western Caribbean development starting wednesday (latest run pushes a major into Brownsville with it), yet no other model shows anything close. The 18z gfs actually shows 91L with a landfall as a cat 2/3 hurricane near Myrtle Beach, SC on the 8th.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Earl Lounge cieldumort Sun Aug 28 2022 07:15 PM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge cieldumort   Fri Sep 02 2022 08:45 PM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 28 2022 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance cieldumort   Sat Aug 27 2022 01:50 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2022 07:15 PM

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