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Tonight "the calm before the storm" and time to finish preps. Even now, high precipitable water and instability values ahead of Beryl are triggering flash flood threats with rainfall rates up to over 3"/Hr #Beryl #TXWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 312 (Idalia) , Major: 312 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 312 (Idalia) Major: 312 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#35A 1:00 pm EDT
25.5N 94.9W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 992mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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Archives 2020s >> 2022 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2347
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 91L Lounge
      Sun Aug 28 2022 10:29 PM



Conditions for development are not looking very pretty for our "Main Development Region" Invest 91L. The air is increasingly dry, and the shear is increasingly high, and the window for significant development, and by significant we are talking *T.D.* here, not necessarily a hurricane let alone named storm, in the near term, may actually be going downhill. In fact, the environment could become so hostile that the fledgling system just poofs like so many before it. We have seen healthier systems this year not get declared a T.D. at all.

One other potential hurdle for 91L is the possibility advertised by the GFS of a beefy W Caribbean-SW Gulf named storm producing a great deal of enhancement in the upper atmosphere, such that shear only increases even more on whatever 91L may be by the end of the coming week.

This has not been a year for disturbances to thrive in the MDR, despite all the usual stars having come into alignment early on to suggest a banner MDR year was coming.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Earl Lounge cieldumort Sun Aug 28 2022 10:29 PM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge cieldumort   Fri Sep 02 2022 08:45 PM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 28 2022 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance cieldumort   Sat Aug 27 2022 01:50 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2022 07:15 PM

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