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Historic #HurricaneBeryl is now also the earliest #Cat 5 Hurricane in the Atlantic basin in recorded history
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 307 (Idalia) , Major: 307 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 307 (Idalia) Major: 307 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#13A 1:00 am EDT
13.4N 64.0W
Wind: 155MPH
Pres: 938mb
Moving:
Wnw at 21 mph
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ADV#4 4:00 pm EDT
20.2N 97.8W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 7 mph
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Archives 2020s >> 2022 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2341
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 91L Lounge
      Fri Sep 02 2022 08:45 PM

Invest 91L, hampered by less than ideal let alone seasonably favorable conditions in the Main Development Region, is now on approach to the northern Leeward Islands and very arguably a Tropical Storm. This puts the northern Leewards and Greater Antilles at threat for either a low-end tropical storm if held in check and continuing along a more southerly track, or possibly even something more, later, if the apparent sheared cyclone does not strengthen enough to feel the tug up and away back out to sea fast enough.

Several recon flights today and tonight are going to be fed into models and as there is now a coherent system (I would argue sheared tropical storm) runs are more apt to have a greater level of accuracy than prior runs focusing on a broad low with several competing globules of vorticity.

0z model runs will be shared here later tonight and early tomorrow on what will by then likely be SIX or Earl.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Earl Lounge cieldumort Fri Sep 02 2022 08:45 PM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge cieldumort   Fri Sep 02 2022 08:45 PM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 28 2022 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance cieldumort   Sat Aug 27 2022 01:50 AM
. * * Re: Central Atlantic Disturbance MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2022 07:15 PM

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