F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

Archives 2020s >> 2022 Forecast Lounge
Previous thread Previous   View all threads Index   Next thread Next   Flat Mode Flat  

MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged:
Posts: 4548
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Fiona Lounge
      Fri Sep 16 2022 01:05 PM

Models are in a bit of chaos with the storm effectively moving faster and further south. Generally the idea for the longer term is if it gets picked up by the weakness or not. It's marginal now, which is why models have been going left and right during the runs. At the moment it's more to the right, but with Fiona already further west and slightly south than the runs, it could shift back the other way again. And may flip flop for a while until we know what happens with Hispaniola.

Currently the 6z GFS turns right in the Dominican republic and barely misses the Turks and caicos to the east then cuts right and gets close to bermuda. 18z yesterday had it scraping the Outer Banks. 0z had it moving faster. Telling is the 6z position is already slightly off for where it is now. So the chances of it flip flopping are good.

0z Euro gets into the Central bahamas and then north, but then cuts back left, moving tremendously slowly at the time, showcasing the uncertainty. 12z yesterday had a West Palm beach Florida landfall. So this too is flip flopping

0z Canadian goes through the southeastern Bahamas, then cuts up close to the Outer Banks before turning out to sea. 12z yesterday had a Florida then New Orelans Landfall. So this too is flip flopping. The NHC track still looks pretty solid, however.

The TVCN consensus has been trending west, with some minor shifting right and left during that time.

Ensembles are spread, with the general trend of stronger runs tend to turn north and weaker are more west. The 6z EPS run this morning shows that well.



There's too much chaos in model trends between runs beyond the Caribbean right now to take anything as solid. So in short Bahamas, the US East coast and Bermuda need to keep watch on it until things clear up. With Fiona moving this quickly and weak, it's in a marginal setup to recurve or not right now.


Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Fiona Lounge MikeCAdministrator Fri Sep 16 2022 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Fiona Lounge cieldumort   Sat Sep 17 2022 07:11 AM
. * * Re: Fiona Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 16 2022 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Fiona Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 17 2022 04:18 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 8 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 2767

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center