Ian Lounge - FLHurricane.com

This system has a few more days before it develops. Although once in the west Caribbean the upper air pattern for it is strikingly good on the models, so the intensity may be uncapped at least in that variable. Dry and land interaction may be the only thing holding it back. The models are shifting to basically somewhere in the Eastern Gulf, which could mean MS/AL/Panhandle or somewhere along the west coast of Florida. Although before anything has developed, I'd remain very cautions about inferring anything about exact track there. It'll likely get south of Grand Cayman and start turning north around then, if it goes over Cuba or through the Yucatan channel is unknown.

0GFZ currently has a landfall just west of Panama City Beach, Sep 30, Friday morning as a cat 4. This track will likely shift back and forth multiple times, potentially quite far one way or the other over the next week. So the only thing I can infer is the Keys and west Coast of Florida to Louisiana needs to watch this very closely.

0z EURO has a landfall Thursday morning in Naples after getting very close to Key West, as cat 3. After that crosses the state and exits somewhere around Melbourne then makes another landfall in Wilmington, NC.

0z Canadian ends in the Central Gulf on Sep 30th. (Which is a huge shift east from earlier where it wound up in the Bay of Campeche)

0z German Icon only goes out to the 28th, but it ends on the western tip of Cuba as a cat 3.

Remember these models are all over 5 days so not very reliable at this point for track OR intensity, especially for a system that has not developed yet and probably won't until it gets into the Caribbean in 2-3 days. Good for giving a sense of a good general area (being several states wide) to need to pay attention to.

The angle it which its coming from will making figuring out the exact track very difficult even very close to the landfall timeframe, especially if it winds up targeting the west coast of Florida. (See Hurricane Charley for an example of that) Timeframe is late next week for Gulf/Florida. (Thur-Sat depending on exactly where it goes)

In the meantime Canada will be dealing with a very strong transitioning Fiona (Equivalent pressure typical to a cat 4 when it arrives in Nova Scotia).

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