cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Ian Lounge
Sat Sep 24 2022 03:38 PM
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Recon, something we did not have much benefit of the past 48 hours as flights were focusing on Fiona, has spent a great deal of time in Ian today, and the data is significant.
The first thing of note, is that Ian is rather troffy, with possibly still multiple swirls, or "centers," old and new, rotating about a midpoint of the troffy-storm. In addition, it still seems be feeling the push possibly a little bit more southward than largely forecast by the narrow ridge to its north. Finally, the pressure does not yet seem to be falling, and winds are not picking up.
All the above taken together casts further doubt on the reliability of the near unanimous model consensus of a direct Florida west coast landfall. The minority reports, the outliers initially weaker and then further left (west) in the long-range, clearly have some validity.
In fact, there has only been one VDM so far today, from 1042z, predawn and many hours ago, that fixed way down at 13.54N 74.58W, and on its own did not make a compelling case for tropical storm intensity.
Quote:
A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 10:42:29Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13.54N 74.58W
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg)
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 32kts (36.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 134 nautical miles (154 statute miles) to the NNE (30°) of center fix at 11:16:28Z
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,541m (5,056ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration and Wind
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph) which was observed 138 nautical miles (159 statute miles) to the NNE (30°) from the flight level center at 11:17:18Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNE (30°) from the flight level center
0z models out later tonight may respond in meaningful way. Track and intensity remain in play, particularly track, as Ian is still more likely than not to become a Major. But a Florida peninsula landfall, maybe not so locked in. We can certainly hope not, for the probable strength and size of Ian around that time could be devastating for locations such as the Keys and Tampa.
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