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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 274 (Idalia) , Major: 274 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 274 (Idalia) Major: 274 (Idalia)

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Archives 2020s >> 2022 Forecast Lounge

IsoFlame
Weather Analyst

Reged:
Posts: 296
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...

Re: Ian Lounge
Sun Sep 25 2022 05:01 PM

Quote:

Not what I expected this AM in terms of organization - Ianâ€™s a mess. Reading the NHC discussion the lack of a true center is causing issues with determining strength and direction. Long term model guidance seems plagued by â€œwhenâ€ leading to confusion over where. Slower motion favorites a N track while faster movement would allow the turn E into Tampa to occur. All models point to a ramp up into a major â€˜cane but you wouldnâ€™t know that by the current satellite imagery.

I've had the same thoughts watching NINE and TS Ian to this point. However, at noon satellite imagery illustrates possible stacking of circulation and influx of banding deep convection NE of the center, leading me to believe that Ian's unimpressive organization so far is about to dramatically change this afternoon through the evening. Next 48-60 hours we could witness an exponential (Camille-like?) ramp-up in intensity to 140 mph as NHC forecast and intensity models suggest.

Even though the cone shifted west away from Tampa Bay region today, I hope newcomers to the Bay area or those that did not have grandparents that lived there, are preparing for flooding rainfall and a near historic storm surge potentially approaching (OR EXCEEDING) 10 feet.

Even though it is a beautiful late September weekend and it may be hard to grasp how dramaticlly conditions may go downhill early Wednesday as Ian nears, PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND ALL UPCOMING WARNINGS when Ian's organization dramatically improves, allowing modeling to narrow down ultimate track/intensity and Florida west coast landfall.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Sun Sep 25 2022 05:04 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Sep 25 2022 05:01 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Sep 29 2022 05:31 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Sep 28 2022 08:36 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Wed Sep 28 2022 10:24 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Sep 28 2022 10:51 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 01:00 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 02:15 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 02:55 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Owlguin	Wed Sep 28 2022 04:38 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Wed Sep 28 2022 11:22 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Rhino7170	Thu Sep 29 2022 07:16 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Thu Sep 29 2022 12:58 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Rhino7170	Thu Sep 29 2022 07:19 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Thu Sep 29 2022 02:56 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Thu Sep 29 2022 03:40 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Thu Sep 29 2022 03:20 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	kapSt.Cloud	Thu Sep 29 2022 04:45 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Thu Sep 29 2022 05:20 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	kapSt.Cloud	Thu Sep 29 2022 03:38 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	TanukiMario	Thu Sep 29 2022 05:12 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Thu Sep 29 2022 11:42 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Fri Sep 30 2022 04:14 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	TanukiMario	Fri Sep 30 2022 06:46 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Fri Sep 30 2022 08:18 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Sat Oct 01 2022 08:48 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	kapSt.Cloud	Sun Oct 02 2022 03:19 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Thu Sep 29 2022 08:15 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Rhino7170	Thu Sep 29 2022 07:22 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	KornR	Thu Sep 29 2022 12:45 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	kapSt.Cloud	Thu Sep 29 2022 12:11 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Kraig	Thu Sep 29 2022 12:30 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 05:22 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 07:18 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Wed Sep 28 2022 08:51 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	vineyardsaker	Wed Sep 28 2022 08:39 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 08:55 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 09:06 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Wed Sep 28 2022 10:05 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Wed Sep 28 2022 09:06 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Kigeliakitten	Wed Sep 28 2022 11:00 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Wed Sep 28 2022 05:03 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Owlguin	Wed Sep 28 2022 05:18 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Sep 28 2022 10:36 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Sep 27 2022 09:09 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Tue Sep 27 2022 10:33 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Tue Sep 27 2022 01:00 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Sep 27 2022 01:41 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Tue Sep 27 2022 02:27 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Tue Sep 27 2022 06:58 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Tue Sep 27 2022 03:35 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Thu Sep 29 2022 08:12 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Sep 27 2022 04:07 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Sep 27 2022 04:17 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Tue Sep 27 2022 05:12 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Tue Sep 27 2022 07:05 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Tue Sep 27 2022 08:40 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	RevUp	Tue Sep 27 2022 03:18 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Tue Sep 27 2022 08:52 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Tue Sep 27 2022 09:19 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Tue Sep 27 2022 09:50 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 12:36 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Wed Sep 28 2022 02:05 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Wed Sep 28 2022 01:33 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 02:35 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Tue Sep 27 2022 09:17 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Sep 24 2022 08:41 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Sep 24 2022 07:38 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Sep 24 2022 09:58 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Sun Sep 25 2022 12:15 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	MikeC	Sun Sep 25 2022 10:53 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	MikeC	Sun Sep 25 2022 12:52 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Sun Sep 25 2022 11:05 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	MikeC	Sun Sep 25 2022 12:02 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Sun Sep 25 2022 01:06 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Sun Sep 25 2022 05:01 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MikeC	Sun Sep 25 2022 08:36 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Sun Sep 25 2022 11:41 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Mon Sep 26 2022 03:17 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Keith B	Mon Sep 26 2022 08:18 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Mon Sep 26 2022 01:54 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Mon Sep 26 2022 02:34 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Mon Sep 26 2022 03:29 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Mon Sep 26 2022 11:44 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Tue Sep 27 2022 12:05 AM
Can we get some radar recording	Robert	Tue Sep 27 2022 12:10 AM
Re: Can we get some radar recording	MikeC	Tue Sep 27 2022 12:32 AM
Re: Can we get some radar recording	Psyber	Tue Sep 27 2022 12:31 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	MikeC	Mon Sep 26 2022 05:14 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Mon Sep 26 2022 09:59 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Sep 26 2022 05:50 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Mon Sep 26 2022 07:22 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Mon Sep 26 2022 08:18 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Kraig	Mon Sep 26 2022 09:49 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Mon Sep 26 2022 10:02 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Mon Sep 26 2022 10:30 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Kraig	Mon Sep 26 2022 11:08 PM
Storm moving with the shear	Robert	Mon Sep 26 2022 11:14 PM
Re: Storm moving with the shear	Robert	Mon Sep 26 2022 11:38 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Mon Sep 26 2022 11:03 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Kraig	Mon Sep 26 2022 11:15 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Mon Sep 26 2022 11:56 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Lautermilch	Tue Sep 27 2022 12:44 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Tue Sep 27 2022 01:49 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Robert	Mon Sep 26 2022 09:56 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Sep 26 2022 07:59 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Sep 26 2022 09:47 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	OrlandoDan	Mon Sep 26 2022 03:01 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Mon Sep 26 2022 03:26 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Keith B	Mon Sep 26 2022 02:31 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	pongolo	Mon Sep 26 2022 03:16 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Sat Sep 24 2022 07:56 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Sep 24 2022 05:47 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Keith B	Tue Oct 04 2022 10:26 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Sat Sep 24 2022 10:27 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Sat Sep 24 2022 10:57 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	MikeC	Sat Sep 24 2022 01:02 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Sat Sep 24 2022 01:59 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Sat Sep 24 2022 03:45 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Southern4sure	Sat Sep 24 2022 04:13 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Sat Sep 24 2022 06:25 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MikeC	Sat Sep 24 2022 07:36 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MikeC	Sat Sep 24 2022 09:43 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Marknole	Sat Sep 24 2022 01:52 PM
Re: TD 9 Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Sep 23 2022 06:38 PM
Re: TD 9 Lounge	IsoFlame	Fri Sep 23 2022 09:06 PM
Re: TD 9 Lounge	dolfinatic	Fri Sep 23 2022 08:03 PM
Re: TD 9 Lounge	MichaelA	Fri Sep 23 2022 09:13 PM
Re: TD 9 Lounge	MichaelA	Sat Sep 24 2022 12:45 AM
Re: TD 9 Lounge	JMII	Sat Sep 24 2022 01:15 AM
Re: TD 9 Lounge	MikeC	Sat Sep 24 2022 01:41 AM
Re: TD 9 Lounge	OrlandoDan	Fri Sep 23 2022 09:58 PM
Re: 98L Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Sep 22 2022 04:24 PM
Re: 98L Lounge	MikeC	Fri Sep 23 2022 05:10 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	craigm	Fri Sep 23 2022 08:28 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	IsoFlame	Fri Sep 23 2022 11:07 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	MichaelA	Fri Sep 23 2022 11:47 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	JMII	Fri Sep 23 2022 01:03 PM
Re: 98L Lounge	Lamar-Plant City	Fri Sep 23 2022 02:56 PM
Re: 98L Lounge	Wingwiper	Fri Sep 23 2022 12:46 PM
Re: 98L Lounge	MikeC	Fri Sep 23 2022 11:44 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Sep 22 2022 07:11 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	MikeC	Thu Sep 22 2022 11:12 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	IsoFlame	Thu Sep 22 2022 12:36 PM
Re: 98L Lounge	Kraig	Thu Sep 22 2022 12:59 PM
Re: 98L Lounge	GeorgeN	Thu Sep 22 2022 12:25 PM
Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L)	IsoFlame	Tue Sep 20 2022 01:39 PM
Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L)	GeorgeN	Tue Sep 20 2022 06:13 PM
Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L)	IsoFlame	Tue Sep 20 2022 06:58 PM
Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L)	Kraig	Tue Sep 20 2022 07:41 PM
Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L)	GeorgeN	Tue Sep 20 2022 08:21 PM
Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L)	MikeC	Wed Sep 21 2022 10:47 AM
Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L)	MichaelA	Tue Sep 20 2022 12:08 PM

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