Hurricane Warnings Expand as Ian Intensifies and Heads for Florida

2:00PM EDT Update 27 September 2022 Update
Ian continues strengthening and veering to the right (east) in response. This trend looks to continue, and those within the southern portion of the cone and even outside of the cone to the south should prepare for the increasing possibility of Ian coming in further south and at a higher intensity than many earlier model runs and model consensus aids.

Comparisons to Charley are understandable, but misleading. These are two very different storms. Charley was a highly compact, small Cat 4 hurricane, or if you like a very wide tornado. Ian is a different beast. Also likely to be a Cat 4 at some point before landfall, increasing odds of going Cat 5 if there is enough time, and larger, with time over the water to generate a very large fetch of surge over a wide area, in addition to howling major hurricane winds mostly within miles from the center, within the eyewall, and then "only" high-end Tropical Storm to Cat 1/2 winds up to many tens of miles from the center. Maybe think of Charley blending with Ike, or in some ways, blending with Katrina. Pray that the landfall location and where the storm surge is greatest is not as sensitive a location as southeastern Louisiana.

NHC:

-Ciel

4:30AM EDT Update 27 September 2022 Update
Hurricane Ian has made its first landfall: in the Pinar Del Rio Pr of Cuba at 4:30 AM EDT, at just below Cat 4, with an estimated 125 MPH max sustained winds and a minimum central pressure of 952mb.
-Ciel

2:30AM EDT Update 27 September 2022 Update
Ian has become the second Major Hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season while on approach to landfall along western Cuba, and has been continuing to intensify heading into this landfall.

The western portion of Cuba is relatively flat without tall mountains seen in the middle of the island and weakening, if any, is likely to be brief as the cyclone tracks over what may amount to not much more than a bump in the road. Additional intensification or re-intensifcation is expected in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
-Ciel

1AM EDT Update 27 September 2022 Update
Two factors that are increasing the odds of a worse or worst case scenario for those living along the west coast of Florida have been coming into focus for the past 24 hours. Increasingly, models see a deeper trof approaching the east coast while Ian continues to rapidly strengthen and will likely soon become a Major Hurricane, if not already there as I write this.

This sets off all sorts of alarm bells for Emergency Managers and forecasters: a more intense, sizeable hurricane hooking right sooner rather than later with less time to weaken, and possibly even additional favorable atmospheric conditions heading up to or even into landfall.

To make matters even more dangerous, Ian may have window of slow to very slow forward motion, potentially raking vulnerable coast with otherwordly wind and storm surge, for hours on end, and dumping equator-like torrential rains over the same locations and points inland, for hours on end.

While we avoid hype here, there is no sugar coating that at this time it is with high confidence that those living along the west coast from the Keys to the Big Bend should be preparing as fast as possible for the worst while hoping for the best, as track is likely to continue to be in flux, but wherever Ian goes at this point, it is more likely than not to end up being horrible, more horrible, or most horrible. And this is not limited to those right along the coast where record storm surge is a real possibility. Those inland along the cyclone's track can expect damaging wind gusts, long-duration power outages, and the potential for up to feet or even several feet of rain with attendant potentially life-threatening inland flooding. Tropical waterspouts and tornadoes, also.

For in-depth model analysis and a place for more speculative discussions, join us in the Ian Forecast Lounge
-Ciel

5PM EDT Update 26 September 2022 Update
Hurricane ian is now a category 2 hurricane and forecast to be a major hurricane when it nears Tampa Wednesday afternoon. The track landfall takes place near Crystal River, but the eastern eyewall rakes Tampa bay and points north. Which is a very dangerous surge situation. If you live in an evacuation zone in the western counties, please take their advice. This is an extremely dangerous situation there.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning from Englewood southward to Flamingo. A Hurricane Watch has
been issued from Bonita Beach to Englewood.

The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Anclote River, including
Tampa Bay, has been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning. A Hurricane
Watch has been issued from the Anclote River to the Suwannee River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwannee River to
Indian Pass, and on the eatst coast of Florida from Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound.

Please stay in touch with local officials and media for the best information for your area. We at flhurricane are affected too and updates may be less frequent.
Original Update

Ian is now a hurricane, and Hurricane Watches are now up for the West coast of Florida from Englewood north to the Anclote River, Including all of the Tampa Bay area.

Ian in an environment that should allow it to rapidly become a major hurricane and move over the Western portion of Cuba, which may disrupt it some, but won't be over it long, so the forecast is it to be a major Hurricane very near offshore Tampa. Slight deviations right would bring it onshore of West Central Florida. It will be near enough to cause some surge issues in parts of the West coast, and close enough that any right deviation would send the eye onshore, so evacuations of certain areas along the west coast are likely today. Please consult local media and officials for the latest information there.

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Florida Emergency Management

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Edited by cieldumort (Tue Sep 27 2022 03:02 PM)

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