Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Ian Lounge
Mon Sep 26 2022 04:18 PM
I can't imagine many scenarios worse than a brief/slow jog to the ENE as the GFS suggested. It would put the Bay and Pinellas on the right front quadrant of a strong, slow moving cat 3 for 6-8 hours (maybe even 10-12) starting late night Wednesday into much of Thursday.
The only good news with the slower motion is that increases the chances Ian has of sucking in dry air and encountering shear as the global models show unfavorable environmental conditions later on this week. However that scenario only plays out if Ian stays offshore moving N then coming in near the Big Bend region. If it turns ENE sooner into Tampa it will be going full tilt but then surge wouldn't have a chance to pile up as much.
Sucking dry air? From where? The eye appears to be going overland in the next day however the W/W NW side of the storm will stay over HOT water for the entire time it's over Cuba, no matter if it is inland a bit or if it comes in around the tip that points to Cancun.. Storms usually go to Cuba to die, but that's when they're going West and prolonged over the mountains of Cuba.
They don't go there to die when they're basically going north over some of the lowest sea level parts on what appears to be the thinnest strip of land in all of Cuba. Even though Ian is going slow, it won't even be over Cuba longer than a very small period of time versus a lot of "normal" tracks.
If it weakens from Cuba, it will be tiny compared to normal...that is to say that there are a lot of people looking at this like "yeeeap, heading over, Cuba, going to drop all it's energy and turn it into a TD, just like most times!). This isn't that, and some like me see it getting WORSE even though it's over land because it'll still be taking in warm water out of the Yucatan Channel the entire time it's over lCuba until it gets into the Gulf. At that point, it possibly EXPLODES into an H4...maybe FIVE within a day and a half..
The high that is forecast to affect the storm when it's nearly on Florida will most definitely weaken it, but that's after a lot of Gulf.
Lastly, I've said it before, and I'll say it again. The modelling doesn't seem to EVER give enough consideration to SST's. The WORST air pressure this is "forecast" as having is 950ish? I find that VERY hard to believe. Seeing as how every inch of where this storm could go is 30C-34C, they're YET AGAIN ignoring the fact that WHEN Ian gets a defined eyewall(could be now/south of Cuba for all the data we can see), the storm is likely going to have SCARY hot water to spawn more outlying storms from. If it gets that hot water for very long before the high moving in from the North hit's it, the storm is going to explode, and I don't see any modelling that currently captures that at this point. Heck, we could see the high bumping Ian further out into the Gulf for a longer period of time while the low and high duke it out to see who is stronger. *sheug*.
The day I meet a Met who takes SST's as serious as he/she should, I'm going to buy them a drink.
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.