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Archives 2020s >> 2022 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Reged:
Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Ian Lounge
Tue Sep 27 2022 05:09 AM

There's a lot of push and pull going on with Ian that still makes US landfall location and by extension landfall intensity very difficult for being just 1-3 days out.

The 0z runs have already made some errors in one place, while gotten things right in another, in some ways cancelling each pro and con out that could result in the same landfall location and intensity had both been correct. Could. Or not. It is easy to see how it could, and could not. This doesn't make the track forecast any less muddy.

Given Ian's near Cat 4 intensity heading into western Cuba, a track to the right sooner rather than later makes sense, considering the deeper trof digging into the eastern US. A hook right sooner rather than later could also protect Ian from the incoming shear over the region, at least in the near to medium term, allowing the cyclone to maintain a stronger intensity than should it track more north-bound, and headlong into the incoming shear.

Locations from roughly Tampa south may want to pay close attention to any subtle changes in Ian's track today, as they could add up in time to a more south-bound ultimate landfall.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Sep 27 2022 05:09 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Sep 29 2022 01:31 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Sep 28 2022 04:36 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Wed Sep 28 2022 06:24 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Sep 28 2022 06:51 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 09:00 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 10:15 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 10:55 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Owlguin	Wed Sep 28 2022 12:38 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Wed Sep 28 2022 07:22 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Rhino7170	Thu Sep 29 2022 03:16 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Wed Sep 28 2022 08:58 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Rhino7170	Thu Sep 29 2022 03:19 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 10:56 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Wed Sep 28 2022 11:40 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Thu Sep 29 2022 11:20 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	kapSt.Cloud	Thu Sep 29 2022 12:45 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Thu Sep 29 2022 01:20 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	kapSt.Cloud	Thu Sep 29 2022 11:38 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	TanukiMario	Thu Sep 29 2022 01:12 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Thu Sep 29 2022 07:42 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Fri Sep 30 2022 12:14 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	TanukiMario	Fri Sep 30 2022 02:46 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Fri Sep 30 2022 04:18 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Sat Oct 01 2022 04:48 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	kapSt.Cloud	Sat Oct 01 2022 11:19 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Thu Sep 29 2022 04:15 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Rhino7170	Thu Sep 29 2022 03:22 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	KornR	Wed Sep 28 2022 08:45 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	kapSt.Cloud	Wed Sep 28 2022 08:11 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Kraig	Wed Sep 28 2022 08:30 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 01:22 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 03:18 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Wed Sep 28 2022 04:51 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	vineyardsaker	Wed Sep 28 2022 04:39 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 04:55 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 28 2022 05:06 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Wed Sep 28 2022 06:05 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Wed Sep 28 2022 05:06 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Kigeliakitten	Wed Sep 28 2022 07:00 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Wed Sep 28 2022 01:03 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Owlguin	Wed Sep 28 2022 01:18 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Sep 28 2022 06:36 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Sep 27 2022 05:09 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Tue Sep 27 2022 06:33 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Tue Sep 27 2022 09:00 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Sep 27 2022 09:41 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Tue Sep 27 2022 10:27 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Tue Sep 27 2022 02:58 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Tue Sep 27 2022 11:35 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Thu Sep 29 2022 04:12 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Sep 27 2022 12:07 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Sep 27 2022 12:17 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Tue Sep 27 2022 01:12 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Tue Sep 27 2022 03:05 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Tue Sep 27 2022 04:40 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	RevUp	Tue Sep 27 2022 11:18 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Tue Sep 27 2022 04:52 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Tue Sep 27 2022 05:19 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Tue Sep 27 2022 05:50 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Tue Sep 27 2022 08:36 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Tue Sep 27 2022 10:05 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Tue Sep 27 2022 09:33 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Tue Sep 27 2022 10:35 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Tue Sep 27 2022 05:17 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Sep 24 2022 04:41 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Sep 24 2022 03:38 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Sep 24 2022 05:58 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Sat Sep 24 2022 08:15 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MikeC	Sun Sep 25 2022 06:53 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	MikeC	Sun Sep 25 2022 08:52 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Sun Sep 25 2022 07:05 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	MikeC	Sun Sep 25 2022 08:02 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Sun Sep 25 2022 09:06 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Sun Sep 25 2022 01:01 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MikeC	Sun Sep 25 2022 04:36 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Sun Sep 25 2022 07:41 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Sun Sep 25 2022 11:17 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Keith B	Mon Sep 26 2022 04:18 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Mon Sep 26 2022 09:54 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Mon Sep 26 2022 10:34 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Mon Sep 26 2022 11:29 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Mon Sep 26 2022 07:44 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Mon Sep 26 2022 08:05 PM
Can we get some radar recording	Robert	Mon Sep 26 2022 08:10 PM
Re: Can we get some radar recording	MikeC	Mon Sep 26 2022 08:32 PM
Re: Can we get some radar recording	Psyber	Mon Sep 26 2022 08:31 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MikeC	Mon Sep 26 2022 01:14 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Mon Sep 26 2022 05:59 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Sep 26 2022 01:50 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Mon Sep 26 2022 03:22 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Mon Sep 26 2022 04:18 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Kraig	Mon Sep 26 2022 05:49 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Mon Sep 26 2022 06:02 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Mon Sep 26 2022 06:30 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Kraig	Mon Sep 26 2022 07:08 PM
Storm moving with the shear	Robert	Mon Sep 26 2022 07:14 PM
Re: Storm moving with the shear	Robert	Mon Sep 26 2022 07:38 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Mon Sep 26 2022 07:03 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Kraig	Mon Sep 26 2022 07:15 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Mon Sep 26 2022 07:56 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Lautermilch	Mon Sep 26 2022 08:44 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Psyber	Mon Sep 26 2022 09:49 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Robert	Mon Sep 26 2022 05:56 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Sep 26 2022 03:59 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Sep 26 2022 05:47 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	OrlandoDan	Mon Sep 26 2022 11:01 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Mon Sep 26 2022 11:26 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Keith B	Sun Sep 25 2022 10:31 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	pongolo	Mon Sep 26 2022 11:16 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Sat Sep 24 2022 03:56 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Sep 24 2022 01:47 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Keith B	Tue Oct 04 2022 06:26 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Sat Sep 24 2022 06:27 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	IsoFlame	Sat Sep 24 2022 06:57 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	MikeC	Sat Sep 24 2022 09:02 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	JMII	Sat Sep 24 2022 09:59 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	MichaelA	Sat Sep 24 2022 11:45 AM
Re: Ian Lounge	Southern4sure	Sat Sep 24 2022 12:13 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	GeorgeN	Sat Sep 24 2022 02:25 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MikeC	Sat Sep 24 2022 03:36 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	MikeC	Sat Sep 24 2022 05:43 PM
Re: Ian Lounge	Marknole	Sat Sep 24 2022 09:52 AM
Re: TD 9 Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Sep 23 2022 02:38 PM
Re: TD 9 Lounge	IsoFlame	Fri Sep 23 2022 05:06 PM
Re: TD 9 Lounge	dolfinatic	Fri Sep 23 2022 04:03 PM
Re: TD 9 Lounge	MichaelA	Fri Sep 23 2022 05:13 PM
Re: TD 9 Lounge	MichaelA	Fri Sep 23 2022 08:45 PM
Re: TD 9 Lounge	JMII	Fri Sep 23 2022 09:15 PM
Re: TD 9 Lounge	MikeC	Fri Sep 23 2022 09:41 PM
Re: TD 9 Lounge	OrlandoDan	Fri Sep 23 2022 05:58 PM
Re: 98L Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Sep 22 2022 12:24 PM
Re: 98L Lounge	MikeC	Fri Sep 23 2022 01:10 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	craigm	Fri Sep 23 2022 04:28 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	IsoFlame	Fri Sep 23 2022 07:07 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	MichaelA	Fri Sep 23 2022 07:47 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	JMII	Fri Sep 23 2022 09:03 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	Lamar-Plant City	Fri Sep 23 2022 10:56 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	Wingwiper	Fri Sep 23 2022 08:46 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	MikeC	Fri Sep 23 2022 07:44 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Sep 22 2022 03:11 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	MikeC	Thu Sep 22 2022 07:12 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	IsoFlame	Thu Sep 22 2022 08:36 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	Kraig	Thu Sep 22 2022 08:59 AM
Re: 98L Lounge	GeorgeN	Thu Sep 22 2022 08:25 AM
Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L)	IsoFlame	Tue Sep 20 2022 09:39 AM
Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L)	GeorgeN	Tue Sep 20 2022 02:13 PM
Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L)	IsoFlame	Tue Sep 20 2022 02:58 PM
Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L)	Kraig	Tue Sep 20 2022 03:41 PM
Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L)	GeorgeN	Tue Sep 20 2022 04:21 PM
Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L)	MikeC	Wed Sep 21 2022 06:47 AM
Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L)	MichaelA	Tue Sep 20 2022 08:08 AM

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