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Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 186 (Idalia) , Major: 186 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 186 (Idalia) Major: 186 (Idalia)
 


Archives 2020s >> 2022 Forecast Lounge

Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 231
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Ian Lounge
      Tue Sep 27 2022 02:58 PM

Quote:

Based on radar its currently tracking on the eastern edge of the cone. Could be looking at another Charley-like event were the focus was on Tampa but the storm comes in further south. Still early... and thus begins the classic" it is a wobble or a trend hour-by-hour play out.




Sorry but I hate to say I'm right when I'm right, but it needs to be said that I was right about how little Cuba was going to touch this storm. In fact, it sped up for a little bit because it was always going to have a huge chunk of the upper left of the storm over water.

I only bring this up because I feel very...sensitive about how the third-world people from Puerto Rico (yes, I consider them 3rd world because the rest of the USA seems to treat them as such (note>I'm from Canada and can sense the...distaste all the way up here) and Cuba and the Dominican and any other country that basically act like hurricane breaks or half of these beasts would enter the Gulf at H3 or H4's before turning into H5's. Watching these unfortunate places get smashed time after time and entirely too many people don't really care about a storm until it's tracking for a continental USA hit is an understatement.

If you asked pretty much everybody about how many Cubans were killed from H3=Ian, the answer from damn near all of them would be..."errrrr, I don't know. It's really going to smoke Florida, though!"

People sit and hum and haw and wonder what's going to happen to a storm because outside of wind sheer/other wind messing with a storm, I can look at the wind and how hot the water is and TELL you what's going to happen to a storm because I've been doing it for 17 years now.. Personally, on large storms that stay over hot water, I'm over 80% right on a destination, give or take 50km from 3 days out. I maintain this level of success because when you drill it all down, a storm is all about water and wind. That's it.
Bands of storms get pulled out of the ocean from hot SST's and wind, and storms get knocked down from cool SST's and wind. The storms I'm wrong on are those that make their own weather despite conditions. The super large, big enough to be ripping storms out of the entire Gulf all at once kind of storms or smaller storms that wobble all over the place.

Note>I don't mean to sound cocky; I just point to the fact that I think people make forecasting storms entirely too complex. The Storm Hunters are now giving data on all four quadrants of a storm that people pour over and feed into models to see what they say when they can just look at the wind and the water, follow a strong model and then add some intelligence to what they SEE. Nobody seems to just LOOK anymore. As far as I'm concerned, every model is going to be wrong because every storm is different and completely archaic.

Certainly, I recommend that people use some modelling, but people need to go back to using their eyes and some common sense too.

In my opinion, which of course is going to get attacked, but hey, I'll trust my 80% forever.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ian Lounge cieldumortModerator Tue Sep 27 2022 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 29 2022 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 28 2022 04:36 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Sep 28 2022 06:24 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 28 2022 06:51 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Wed Sep 28 2022 09:00 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Wed Sep 28 2022 10:15 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Wed Sep 28 2022 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Owlguin   Wed Sep 28 2022 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Wed Sep 28 2022 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Rhino7170   Thu Sep 29 2022 03:16 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge GeorgeN   Wed Sep 28 2022 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Rhino7170   Thu Sep 29 2022 03:19 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Wed Sep 28 2022 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Wed Sep 28 2022 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Thu Sep 29 2022 11:20 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Thu Sep 29 2022 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Thu Sep 29 2022 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Thu Sep 29 2022 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge TanukiMario   Thu Sep 29 2022 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge GeorgeN   Thu Sep 29 2022 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Fri Sep 30 2022 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge TanukiMario   Fri Sep 30 2022 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Fri Sep 30 2022 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Sat Oct 01 2022 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Sat Oct 01 2022 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Thu Sep 29 2022 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Rhino7170   Thu Sep 29 2022 03:22 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge KornR   Wed Sep 28 2022 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Wed Sep 28 2022 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Kraig   Wed Sep 28 2022 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Wed Sep 28 2022 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Wed Sep 28 2022 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Sep 28 2022 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge vineyardsaker   Wed Sep 28 2022 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Wed Sep 28 2022 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Wed Sep 28 2022 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Sep 28 2022 06:05 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Sep 28 2022 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Kigeliakitten   Wed Sep 28 2022 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge GeorgeN   Wed Sep 28 2022 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Owlguin   Wed Sep 28 2022 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Sep 28 2022 06:36 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Tue Sep 27 2022 05:09 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MichaelA   Tue Sep 27 2022 06:33 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Tue Sep 27 2022 09:00 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Sep 27 2022 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Tue Sep 27 2022 10:27 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Tue Sep 27 2022 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge GeorgeN   Tue Sep 27 2022 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Thu Sep 29 2022 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Sep 27 2022 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Sep 27 2022 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Tue Sep 27 2022 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Tue Sep 27 2022 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MichaelA   Tue Sep 27 2022 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge RevUp   Tue Sep 27 2022 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge GeorgeN   Tue Sep 27 2022 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MichaelA   Tue Sep 27 2022 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Tue Sep 27 2022 05:50 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Tue Sep 27 2022 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MichaelA   Tue Sep 27 2022 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Tue Sep 27 2022 09:33 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Tue Sep 27 2022 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Tue Sep 27 2022 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Sep 24 2022 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Sep 24 2022 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Sep 24 2022 05:58 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge IsoFlame   Sat Sep 24 2022 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 25 2022 06:53 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 25 2022 08:52 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MichaelA   Sun Sep 25 2022 07:05 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 25 2022 08:02 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Sun Sep 25 2022 09:06 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge IsoFlame   Sun Sep 25 2022 01:01 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 25 2022 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MichaelA   Sun Sep 25 2022 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MichaelA   Sun Sep 25 2022 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Keith B   Mon Sep 26 2022 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge GeorgeN   Mon Sep 26 2022 09:54 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Mon Sep 26 2022 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge GeorgeN   Mon Sep 26 2022 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge GeorgeN   Mon Sep 26 2022 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Mon Sep 26 2022 08:05 PM
. * * Can we get some radar recording Robert   Mon Sep 26 2022 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Can we get some radar recording MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 26 2022 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Can we get some radar recording Psyber   Mon Sep 26 2022 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Sep 26 2022 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Mon Sep 26 2022 05:59 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Sep 26 2022 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Mon Sep 26 2022 03:22 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Mon Sep 26 2022 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Kraig   Mon Sep 26 2022 05:49 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Mon Sep 26 2022 06:02 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Mon Sep 26 2022 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Kraig   Mon Sep 26 2022 07:08 PM
. * * Storm moving with the shear Robert   Mon Sep 26 2022 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Storm moving with the shear Robert   Mon Sep 26 2022 07:38 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Mon Sep 26 2022 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Kraig   Mon Sep 26 2022 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Mon Sep 26 2022 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Lautermilch   Mon Sep 26 2022 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Psyber   Mon Sep 26 2022 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Robert   Mon Sep 26 2022 05:56 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Sep 26 2022 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Sep 26 2022 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge OrlandoDan   Mon Sep 26 2022 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MichaelA   Mon Sep 26 2022 11:26 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Keith B   Sun Sep 25 2022 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge pongolo   Mon Sep 26 2022 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge GeorgeN   Sat Sep 24 2022 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge cieldumortModerator   Sat Sep 24 2022 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Keith B   Tue Oct 04 2022 06:26 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge IsoFlame   Sat Sep 24 2022 06:27 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge IsoFlame   Sat Sep 24 2022 06:57 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 24 2022 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge JMII   Sat Sep 24 2022 09:59 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MichaelA   Sat Sep 24 2022 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Southern4sure   Sat Sep 24 2022 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge GeorgeN   Sat Sep 24 2022 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 24 2022 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 24 2022 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Ian Lounge Marknole   Sat Sep 24 2022 09:52 AM
. * * Re: TD 9 Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Sep 23 2022 02:38 PM
. * * Re: TD 9 Lounge IsoFlame   Fri Sep 23 2022 05:06 PM
. * * Re: TD 9 Lounge dolfinatic   Fri Sep 23 2022 04:03 PM
. * * Re: TD 9 Lounge MichaelA   Fri Sep 23 2022 05:13 PM
. * * Re: TD 9 Lounge MichaelA   Fri Sep 23 2022 08:45 PM
. * * Re: TD 9 Lounge JMII   Fri Sep 23 2022 09:15 PM
. * * Re: TD 9 Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 23 2022 09:41 PM
. * * Re: TD 9 Lounge OrlandoDan   Fri Sep 23 2022 05:58 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 22 2022 12:24 PM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 23 2022 01:10 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge craigm   Fri Sep 23 2022 04:28 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge IsoFlame   Fri Sep 23 2022 07:07 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MichaelA   Fri Sep 23 2022 07:47 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge JMII   Fri Sep 23 2022 09:03 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge Lamar-Plant City   Fri Sep 23 2022 10:56 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge Wingwiper   Fri Sep 23 2022 08:46 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 23 2022 07:44 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Thu Sep 22 2022 03:11 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 22 2022 07:12 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge IsoFlame   Thu Sep 22 2022 08:36 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge Kraig   Thu Sep 22 2022 08:59 AM
. * * Re: 98L Lounge GeorgeN   Thu Sep 22 2022 08:25 AM
. * * Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L) IsoFlame   Tue Sep 20 2022 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L) GeorgeN   Tue Sep 20 2022 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L) IsoFlame   Tue Sep 20 2022 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L) Kraig   Tue Sep 20 2022 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L) GeorgeN   Tue Sep 20 2022 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L) MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 21 2022 06:47 AM
. * * Re: Wave E of Carib (Likely 98L) MichaelA   Tue Sep 20 2022 08:08 AM

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