cieldumort
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Re: Ian Lounge
Wed Sep 28 2022 04:36 AM
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Here's a rundown of the 0928 0z runs
Globals:
ECMWF - Landfall just north of Cape Coral around 2PM EDT today, 946mb Major Hurricane. Slowly tracks NNE and just south of Deltona middle of the day Thursday 990mb and dumping a swath of over 20" of rain accumulation to this point between roughly Bradenton to Lakeland. Emerges along the east coast of the state between Titusville and Daytona beach around 8PM EDT Thursday, 988mb, reintensifying. Gradually tracks generally northward just offshore of the east coast and is east of Jacksonville by 10AM EDT Friday, 986mb and continuing to intensify into another landfall southeast of Savannah, GA around 9PM EDT Friday night, 984mb.
UKMET - Landfall roughly between Cape Coral and Port Charlotte about 3PM EDT today, 971mb, and rising. This is an incredibly sensitive area for surge and this rising min pressure in this run only spreads the winds out and increases the surge. Exits the state just east of Titusville about noon Thursday, 992mb, leaving a swath of 12" to 20" cutting sw to ne across the middle of the state. Second landfall NE of Charleston, SC about 5PM EDT Friday, 982mb.
GFS - Landfall west of Port Charlotte 960mb 4PM EDT today. Exits the state just east of Titusville about 4AM EDT Friday, 989mb, by this time leaving a huge swath of 20" to low 30s" from around Bradenton to Daytona Beach. Runs generally northish offshore east coast of Florida, makes another landfall between roughly Savannah, GA and Beaufort, SC about 9PM EDT Friday, 985mb.
ICON - Landfall just west of Cape Coral 953mb around 1PM EDT today. Has a second landfall about 9PM EDT Friday just east of Charleston, SC 966mb, Major.
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