Here's a rundown of the 0928 0z runs
ECMWF - Landfall just north of Cape Coral around 2PM EDT today, 946mb Major Hurricane. Slowly tracks NNE and just south of Deltona middle of the day Thursday 990mb and dumping a swath of over 20" of rain accumulation to this point between roughly Bradenton to Lakeland. Emerges along the east coast of the state between Titusville and Daytona beach around 8PM EDT Thursday, 988mb, reintensifying. Gradually tracks generally northward just offshore of the east coast and is east of Jacksonville by 10AM EDT Friday, 986mb and continuing to intensify into another landfall southeast of Savannah, GA around 9PM EDT Friday night, 984mb.
UKMET - Landfall roughly between Cape Coral and Port Charlotte about 3PM EDT today, 971mb, and rising. This is an incredibly sensitive area for surge and this rising min pressure in this run only spreads the winds out and increases the surge. Exits the state just east of Titusville about noon Thursday, 992mb, leaving a swath of 12" to 20" cutting sw to ne across the middle of the state. Second landfall NE of Charleston, SC about 5PM EDT Friday, 982mb
Above model location and timing with tidal cycle not good for Fort Myers area:
afternoon high tides near forecast time of landfall
Also, high tides up the bay from the entrance will be later in the afternoon, possibly around the time of peak surge, exacerbating and prolonging estuary flooding.
Only "positives": I can come up with in these model scenarios:
Ian may be slightly weaker than Cat 4 5AM advisory (though still a strong 3) just ahead of landfall due to possible erosion of east side of eye wall from land interaction.
Daytime landfall = less hazardous than night for those who did not heed evacuation order, and daytime high tide is up to 6" lower than night.
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
Edited by IsoFlame (Wed Sep 28 2022 06:30 AM)