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As the Euro and GFS track South, I'm still trying to figure out how the UKMET calculated this track all the way back to Sunday. While the other plots were skipping around, UKMET was glued to this area. I know the GFS is better for open ocean runs as it doesn't account for land interaction as well. The Euro did forecast the same landfall as UKMET on Sunday, then it started to track North until it snapped back. I need to do some more research on the UKMET model.

Tampa and the West coast still need to prepare. Irma ran up the state then jogged back towards Tampa in 2017. The eye was 10 miles from my house and it shredded a lot of trees.

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I didn't understand the usually pretty dang good UKMET this entire storm. You are exactly right, and really what I was trying to make the point that I've been trying to make about some models. UKMET had the storm going up to 992mb and north of Tampa for a period of time that was quite honestly a bit dangerous. I'm not a meteorologist however it looks to me like it relied on the jet stream making it sound quicker than it did. From there, Ian did basically the same thing which was meander in the same spot for a very long time. The UKMET had it out to sea though, not half on, half off. CHC had a couple of pretty significant East/West bobs too.

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The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.

Edited by Psyber (Thu Sep 29 2022 06:10 PM)

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