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Now Tropical Storm Ernesto pulling away from Bermuda and out to sea. Likely to become post-tropical by Tuesday. Rest of ATL strangely quiet.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 12 (Debby) , Major: 353 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 12 (Debby) Major: 353 (Idalia)
Hur Ernesto
ADV#25A 8:00 pm EDT
33.5N 63.7W
Wind: 75MPH
Pres: 976mb
Moving:
Nne at 6 mph
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2368
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: SW Gulf Invest 93L
      Tue Oct 11 2022 10:21 PM

Recon has found that Invest 93L was sufficiently organized to classify as a tropical cyclone, and with surface winds of at least 40 MPH, NHC advisories have begun on Tropical Storm Karl. Early model runs generally agree on Karl tracking northwest before turning back around to the southwest and gradually making its away to a landfall in Mexico along the coast in the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

There are some indications that Karl may linger or meander a bit, and future runs may begin to diverse some in the extended range, and are worth keeping an eye on.

Intensity-wise, RI is not forecast, and considering the rather broad wind field and broad center, this makes sense. Of course, waters are quite toasty and the longer a TC has over toasty waters in favorable atmospheric conditions, the more something could change here, too.

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* Karl Lounge cieldumort Tue Oct 11 2022 10:21 PM
. * * Re: SW Gulf Invest 93L cieldumort   Tue Oct 11 2022 10:21 PM

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