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Tonight "the calm before the storm" and time to finish preps. Even now, high precipitable water and instability values ahead of Beryl are triggering flash flood threats with rainfall rates up to over 3"/Hr #Beryl #TXWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 311 (Idalia) , Major: 311 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 311 (Idalia) Major: 311 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#34A 7:00 am EDT
24.9N 94.3W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 995mb
Moving:
Nw at 13 mph
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2347
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: SW Gulf Invest 93L
      Tue Oct 11 2022 10:21 PM

Recon has found that Invest 93L was sufficiently organized to classify as a tropical cyclone, and with surface winds of at least 40 MPH, NHC advisories have begun on Tropical Storm Karl. Early model runs generally agree on Karl tracking northwest before turning back around to the southwest and gradually making its away to a landfall in Mexico along the coast in the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

There are some indications that Karl may linger or meander a bit, and future runs may begin to diverse some in the extended range, and are worth keeping an eye on.

Intensity-wise, RI is not forecast, and considering the rather broad wind field and broad center, this makes sense. Of course, waters are quite toasty and the longer a TC has over toasty waters in favorable atmospheric conditions, the more something could change here, too.

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* Karl Lounge cieldumort Tue Oct 11 2022 10:21 PM
. * * Re: SW Gulf Invest 93L cieldumort   Tue Oct 11 2022 10:21 PM

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