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Invest 95L in the Tropical Atlantic now has a 90% chance to develop over the next 7 days, and a 70% chance to do so in the next 48 hours. Recon scheduled for Sunday morning.a
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 302 (Idalia) , Major: 302 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 302 (Idalia) Major: 302 (Idalia)
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Archives 2020s >> 2022 Forecast Lounge
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 303
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
      Mon Nov 07 2022 03:34 PM

Quote:

One of the challenging things about this is the pressure gradient with the high around Virginia, which may drive up winds higher than typical for the TS pressure on the north side. Which is what I'm concerned about the most. I.e. pressure may be 990, but you still get cat 1 winds because of the gradient. If it dips to low 80s or mid 70s, cat 2 becomes possible, that added with the really wide wind field on the north means a ton of surge flooding along the coast.



What is most worrisome hear in Daytona Beach Shores (ground zero for Ian damage on Fla's east coast) is the compromised condition of the beach for what will likely be a very significant coastal erosion event from the gradient wind field north of where Nicole landfalls. We lost 3' depth x 50-75' westward of sand where sea walls collapsed or there were no sea walls.. In the absence of beach re-nourishment (which to my understanding is not an option where sea walls are in place per Army Corp specs), it may take several years of calm hurricane and nor'easter free conditions for significant sand accumulation sea ward of the sea wall. Irma (2017) actually deposited more sand, and dune vegetation had re-established, but Dorian (2019) obliterated the fledgling dune and vegetation.

This back to back onslaught is close to a worse case scenario for Volusia's beaches- the economic driver for the county's tourist-orientated economy. Beach driving- previously a politically charged issue- may ultimately be decided by Mother Nature.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Nicole Forecast Lounge CFHCAdministrator Mon Nov 07 2022 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Nov 07 2022 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Nov 07 2022 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Mon Nov 07 2022 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Mon Nov 07 2022 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Mon Nov 07 2022 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Mon Nov 07 2022 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Mon Nov 07 2022 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge Reef Road Rick   Mon Nov 07 2022 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Nov 07 2022 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Mon Nov 07 2022 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Mon Nov 07 2022 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Tue Nov 08 2022 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Nov 08 2022 06:49 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Tue Nov 08 2022 09:18 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Tue Nov 08 2022 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Tue Nov 08 2022 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge GeorgeN   Tue Nov 08 2022 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Tue Nov 08 2022 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Tue Nov 08 2022 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Wed Nov 09 2022 05:36 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Wed Nov 09 2022 06:20 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 09 2022 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 09 2022 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Nov 09 2022 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 09 2022 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge Kraig   Wed Nov 09 2022 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 09 2022 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge GeorgeN   Wed Nov 09 2022 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 09 2022 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Wed Nov 09 2022 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge Rhino7170   Wed Nov 09 2022 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Thu Nov 10 2022 01:52 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Thu Nov 10 2022 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge GeorgeN   Thu Nov 10 2022 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Thu Nov 10 2022 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Thu Nov 10 2022 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge GeorgeN   Thu Nov 10 2022 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Thu Nov 10 2022 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Thu Nov 10 2022 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Fri Nov 11 2022 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Thu Nov 10 2022 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Nov 08 2022 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Sun Nov 06 2022 07:31 AM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles kapSt.Cloud   Sun Nov 06 2022 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles OrlandoDan   Mon Nov 07 2022 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles kapSt.Cloud   Mon Nov 07 2022 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Nov 04 2022 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Nov 04 2022 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Nov 04 2022 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Sat Nov 05 2022 12:14 AM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MichaelA   Sat Nov 05 2022 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles TanukiMario   Sun Nov 06 2022 07:27 AM

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