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Invest 95L in the Tropical Atlantic now has a 90% chance to develop over the next 7 days, and a 70% chance to do so in the next 48 hours. Recon scheduled for Sunday morning.a
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 302 (Idalia) , Major: 302 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 302 (Idalia) Major: 302 (Idalia)
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Archives 2020s >> 2022 Forecast Lounge
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JMII
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 493
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
      Wed Nov 09 2022 05:05 PM

Nicole continues with this pulsing type behavior where she looks good for a few hours then becomes more ragged. Motion by radar is still due west. About an hour ago (4PM) there was a large burst of energy to the E but that immediately got pushed S (due shear?) and never wrapped up. There is some strong bands to the NE... so she continues to try but is just sputtering along.

Landfall has shifted back N to the Ft Pierce area but not sure I am buying that yet, the mid-Atlantic ridge to the N seems to be staying put which will limit any N motion. There is flow coming up from Cuba which is stopping outflow on the southern side. It appears the Nicole is riding between these two features and thus only going west.

The TS wind field is over estimated especially to the S and W. Per the NHC's maps Tampa should be seeing TS winds already which clearly is not happening, heck its still not blowing that hard here on the east coast.

From the NHC:

A NOAA Coastal Marine Observing Site at Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama Island has recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). A private weather station on Elbow Cay, just east of Great Abaco Island, recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 mph (103 km/h).

So not very powerful and ways to go before Cat 1 status with only 8-9 hours until landfall.

Due to the time change the next update is 6PM not 5PM... I had totally forgotten about that

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22


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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Nicole Forecast Lounge CFHCAdministrator Wed Nov 09 2022 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Nov 07 2022 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Nov 07 2022 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Mon Nov 07 2022 11:06 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Mon Nov 07 2022 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Mon Nov 07 2022 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Mon Nov 07 2022 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Mon Nov 07 2022 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge Reef Road Rick   Mon Nov 07 2022 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Nov 07 2022 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Mon Nov 07 2022 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Mon Nov 07 2022 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Tue Nov 08 2022 01:59 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Nov 08 2022 06:49 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Tue Nov 08 2022 09:18 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge CFHCAdministrator   Tue Nov 08 2022 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Tue Nov 08 2022 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge GeorgeN   Tue Nov 08 2022 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Tue Nov 08 2022 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Tue Nov 08 2022 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Wed Nov 09 2022 05:36 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Wed Nov 09 2022 06:20 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 09 2022 08:16 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 09 2022 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Nov 09 2022 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 09 2022 05:05 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge Kraig   Wed Nov 09 2022 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 09 2022 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge GeorgeN   Wed Nov 09 2022 07:23 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Nov 09 2022 07:41 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Wed Nov 09 2022 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge Rhino7170   Wed Nov 09 2022 11:55 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Thu Nov 10 2022 01:52 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Thu Nov 10 2022 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge GeorgeN   Thu Nov 10 2022 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Thu Nov 10 2022 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Thu Nov 10 2022 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge GeorgeN   Thu Nov 10 2022 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Thu Nov 10 2022 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Thu Nov 10 2022 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge JMII   Fri Nov 11 2022 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge kapSt.Cloud   Thu Nov 10 2022 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Nov 08 2022 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Sun Nov 06 2022 07:31 AM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles kapSt.Cloud   Sun Nov 06 2022 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles OrlandoDan   Mon Nov 07 2022 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles kapSt.Cloud   Mon Nov 07 2022 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Nov 04 2022 12:34 AM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Nov 04 2022 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Fri Nov 04 2022 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MikeCAdministrator   Sat Nov 05 2022 12:14 AM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles MichaelA   Sat Nov 05 2022 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles TanukiMario   Sun Nov 06 2022 07:27 AM

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