Nicole continues with this pulsing type behavior where she looks good for a few hours then becomes more ragged. Motion by radar is still due west. About an hour ago (4PM) there was a large burst of energy to the E but that immediately got pushed S (due shear?) and never wrapped up. There is some strong bands to the NE... so she continues to try but is just sputtering along.
Landfall has shifted back N to the Ft Pierce area but not sure I am buying that yet, the mid-Atlantic ridge to the N seems to be staying put which will limit any N motion. There is flow coming up from Cuba which is stopping outflow on the southern side. It appears the Nicole is riding between these two features and thus only going west.
The TS wind field is over estimated especially to the S and W. Per the NHC's maps Tampa should be seeing TS winds already which clearly is not happening, heck its still not blowing that hard here on the east coast.
From the NHC:
A NOAA Coastal Marine Observing Site at Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama Island has recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). A private weather station on Elbow Cay, just east of Great Abaco Island, recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 mph (103 km/h).
So not very powerful and ways to go before Cat 1 status with only 8-9 hours until landfall.
Due to the time change the next update is 6PM not 5PM... I had totally forgotten about that
-------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for: David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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