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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 303
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: General Long Range Model Discussion
      Sun Jun 11 2023 09:53 AM

Quote:

The GFS has been consistently wrong in this region, it did this quite a bit last year in this same area as well. GFS has it's uses, but it really does have a persistent problem with the Central American Gyre and Venezuela. Not one of the European ensembles shows anything either. East Pacific is the more likely situation. It'll be interesting to see when the GFS stops showing this. Central America will likely get a lot of rain either way.



Thanks for the insight. 12Z did back off significantly on timing/development and ultimate fate if anything is able to spin up. instead (like you mention) lots of moisture associated with the gyre soaks C. America, and moisture also streams NE across Cuba/S. Fla into the Bahamas.

What are the reasons for the GFS to have problems with the gyre, often overachieving development in the region?
I like to use the GFS for medium range forecasts because even though it often cries "wolf", it can give a "heads up" days in advance of the other models.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* General Long Range Model Discussion MikeCAdministrator Sun Jun 11 2023 09:53 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussion Robert   Tue Jul 25 2023 09:37 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussion IsoFlame   Wed Jul 26 2023 09:54 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussion IsoFlame   Fri Jul 28 2023 08:26 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussion IsoFlame   Fri Jul 28 2023 09:01 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussion IsoFlame   Mon Jul 31 2023 05:56 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussion CFHCAdministrator   Thu Aug 10 2023 03:15 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 10 2023 09:09 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussion IsoFlame   Sun Jun 11 2023 09:53 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 11 2023 08:59 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussion IsoFlame   Sun Jun 11 2023 10:11 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 14 2023 10:52 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 14 2023 03:40 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussion MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 15 2023 09:36 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussion CFHCAdministrator   Thu Jun 15 2023 02:23 PM
. * * North West Caribbean Robert   Sun Jun 18 2023 07:56 PM
. * * Re: North West Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 16 2023 11:39 AM
. * * Re: North West Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 16 2023 01:18 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussio MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 17 2023 07:41 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussio MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 17 2023 07:15 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussio MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 18 2023 06:51 AM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussio MikeCAdministrator   Tue Jul 18 2023 04:03 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussio IsoFlame   Sun Jul 23 2023 03:05 PM
. * * Re: General Long Range Model Discussion IsoFlame   Fri Jun 09 2023 10:07 PM

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