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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge
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CFHCAdministrator



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Posts: 164
Loc: East Central Florida
Bret Lounge
      Thu Jun 15 2023 10:04 AM

This is an early start with multiple model agreement on the potential for something to form early to mid next week in the MDR. Right now it's over the coast of Africa.

There's rather strong model support for development from the GFS and Euro, and some from the CMC and Icon as well.

The Euro ensembles are particularly locked onto development, so the 20% chance on the initial outlook seems good. Once the system fully moves off the coast of Africa tomorrow it'll have a few days. There are some negative factors for development, but the very high water temps right now are a big positive, which will likely allow it to develop once in then Central Atlantic. Another negative for development is generally dry air in the MDR this time of year, which is true this year as well.

Beyond this those in the Eastern Caribbean/Leewards will want to see where it goes, but the long term track is split between a Caribbean system and veering north. Track is typically not something to rely on the long range models for, especially before its actually developed.

Invest 92L has become a tropical cyclone and at 11AM AST June 19, NHC Advisories have begun on TD3. The title has been updated accordingly. At 5pm AST June 19 THREE is being upgraded to Bret and the title has been updated again.
-Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Jun 19 2023 04:36 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Bret Lounge CFHCAdministrator Thu Jun 15 2023 10:04 AM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 16 2023 07:35 AM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 16 2023 04:17 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 16 2023 06:40 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 16 2023 09:24 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 17 2023 10:22 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 18 2023 08:14 AM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 18 2023 02:27 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa JMII   Mon Jun 19 2023 12:27 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa OrlandoDan   Mon Jun 19 2023 04:26 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa JMII   Tue Jun 20 2023 02:27 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 18 2023 02:26 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 15 2023 07:41 PM

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