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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: MDR System along coast of Africa
      Fri Jun 16 2023 04:17 PM

12z gfs recurves well before the islands around 55west, 12z Euro gets much closer to the islands when the recurve in earnest happens around 60W as a cat 2 hurricane (However it puts Bermuda in a position to watch it closely). Neither crosses the Caribbean islands.

Euro ensembles has more spread than the GFS, some of the ensembles do cross into the Caribbean. However, with the caveat that the system has not formed yet, the odds favor a recurve before the Caribbean islands at the moment.

12z Canadian CMC/Gem keeps it much weaker and it goes into the Caribbean all the way to Cuba. 12z icon recurves it similar to GFS.

In short this is a setup that is good for the rule of thumb weaker=further west, stronger=more likely to recurve.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Bret Lounge CFHCAdministrator Fri Jun 16 2023 04:17 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 16 2023 07:35 AM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 16 2023 04:17 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 16 2023 06:40 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 16 2023 09:24 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jun 17 2023 10:22 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 18 2023 08:14 AM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 18 2023 02:27 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa JMII   Mon Jun 19 2023 12:27 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa OrlandoDan   Mon Jun 19 2023 04:26 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa JMII   Tue Jun 20 2023 02:27 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 18 2023 02:26 PM
. * * Re: MDR System along coast of Africa MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 15 2023 07:41 PM

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