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Invest 95L near 100% chance to develop, advisories likely to come later today. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm Watches are possible later tonight for parts of the Windward islands of the Caribbean. Area east of that 30% chance. 94L 30% chance.
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W at 21 mph
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General Discussion >> Hurricane Ask/Tell
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CFLBob
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Reged:
Posts: 7
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 2023 Season Forecasts (Updated)
      Mon Jun 26 2023 03:44 PM


Thanks for that. The AMO site that I used isn't as long a period as you linked, but it's very easy to see that it isn't as high as it was toward the end of '22. NOAA OOPC

What prompted me to ask was your mention of a 3.87 sigma event happening. My use of the Gaussian tables in my ex-profession (retired) left me with another implication: either it's not Gaussian or otherwise not an accurate distribution. 1 in 18,650 events are not exactly common. The fact that we have one is potentially a "head's up" that our understanding is wrong. In the electronics industry, the goal was "6 sigma quality"; anything that could be anticipated or designed for within 6 sigma of the design value was supposed to produce an acceptable product. Generally, a 4 sigma situation was a sign that the models weren't right.

The possibility that it's just showing the effects of lower SO2 emissions just raises the question of how much that could be and whether or not the magnitude is reasonable.

Sorry, just trying to learn and understand as much as possible.

--------------------
Retired engineer who still has more hobbies and interests than time.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2023 Season Forecasts (Updated) cieldumort Mon Jun 26 2023 03:44 PM
. * * Re: 2023 Season Forecasts (Updated) cieldumort   Wed Jun 21 2023 01:14 PM
. * * Re: 2023 Season Forecasts (Updated) CFLBob   Thu Jun 22 2023 07:50 PM
. * * Re: 2023 Season Forecasts (Updated) cieldumort   Mon Jun 26 2023 12:21 AM
. * * Re: 2023 Season Forecasts (Updated) CFLBob   Mon Jun 26 2023 03:44 PM
. * * Re: 2023 Season Forecasts (Updated) CFLBob   Wed Jul 26 2023 01:31 PM
. * * Re: 2023 Season Forecasts (Updated) cieldumort   Sun Jun 18 2023 10:57 PM
. * * Re: 2023 Season Forecasts (Updated) cieldumort   Sun Jun 18 2023 11:13 PM

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