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Area in the MDR Atlantic being watched for later next week, 20% chance of development. Leeward Islands need to watch closely.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 18 (Beryl) , Major: 331 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 331 (Idalia) Major: 331 (Idalia)
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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4579
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Atlantic Wave (Invest 95L)
      Fri Jul 21 2023 08:33 AM

Track models for Euro ensembles take this into the Caribbean.

Now that it's an invest several Intensity models are bringing it to hurricane strength, that combined with the relatively small storm size means the globals may not handle it well. The rule of thumb where a stronger storm moves a bit morth north may apply here. If the small size manages to keep itself inside a "protective pouch" around the dryer air (Which appears to be occuring) things could change as far as future track, so it should be watched particularly those in the Eastern Caribbean.

The globals are mixed the HWRF/HMON shows a strong TS or low end hurricane approaching the islands Tuesday. GFS/CMC/Euro Globals take it into the Caribbean where it falls apart, but don't seem to be picking up much on the small size. I'd be cautious using models with this system until something actually develops.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Atlantic Wave (Invest 95L) CFHCAdministrator Fri Jul 21 2023 08:33 AM
. * * Re: Atlantic Wave (Invest 95L) MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 21 2023 08:33 AM
. * * Re: Atlantic Wave (Invest 95L) IsoFlame   Fri Jul 21 2023 03:08 PM

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