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Invest 95L near 100% chance to develop, advisories likely to come later today. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm Watches are possible later tonight for parts of the Windward islands of the Caribbean. Area east of that 30% chance. 94L 30% chance.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 303 (Idalia) , Major: 303 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 303 (Idalia) Major: 303 (Idalia)
Td#2
ADV#1 10:00 pm EDT
9.1N 41.9W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 303
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Atlantic Wave (Invest 95L)
      Fri Jul 21 2023 03:08 PM

Latest GFS run gives 95L a bit more attention before it enters the Caribbean where it fizzles out as it tracks due west. I don't agree with GFS run that builds a 1034mb ridge driving the system into the Caribbean- haven't seen the ridge that strong yet this season. If 95L stays consolidated and can find and stay in a favorable pocket of moisture with low shear and the Atlantic ridge doesn't strengthen enough to continue driving it west, we need to pay attention. A late July hurricane gradually re-curving WNW would not be a surprise to me given the Atlantic basin water temps.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Fri Jul 21 2023 03:09 PM)

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* Atlantic Wave (Invest 95L) CFHCAdministrator Fri Jul 21 2023 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Atlantic Wave (Invest 95L) MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jul 21 2023 08:33 AM
. * * Re: Atlantic Wave (Invest 95L) IsoFlame   Fri Jul 21 2023 03:08 PM

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