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#95L in the Tropical Atlantic with now 70% NHC odds of becoming a Tropical Cyclone. Modeling more consistently aggressive over past 24 hours.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 302 (Idalia) , Major: 302 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 302 (Idalia) Major: 302 (Idalia)
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 91L Lounge
      Sun Aug 20 2023 06:58 PM


Above: Invest 91L Aug 20 5:16pm CT

91L is becoming a more coherent area of low pressure today now that it is indeed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions for further development are favorable, and it is more likely than not to earn a name this week. 91L is primarily an open water and then Texas/Mexico threat.

Here are some recent model rundowns

20/18z Experimental RRFS-A (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s next generation convection-allowing, rapidly-updated ensemble prediction system, currently scheduled for operational implementation in 2024). This model seems to have a close handle on the initial state of 91L as of this evening, and also does a much better job than most at incorporating convection and its impacts "convection allowing.": Very stout tropical wave until 91L is in the central GOM Monday afternoon, where this model's run seems to have the system unmistakably closed off as a strong tropical storm. Cat 1 hurricane Tuesday morning on approach to south Texas. Landfall later Tuesday morning as a strong Cat 1 in the vicinity of Port Mansfield, TX.

20/18z NAM3K (Also convection-allowing, but does not appear to have as good a handle on initial state): Landfall in extreme South Texas near Brownsville Tuesday morning as a T.D. or low-end T.S.

20/18z GFS: (A less organized initial state than the RRFS. Not convection-allowing): Landfall Tuesday morning in vicinity of Port Mansfield, TX as a low-end T.S.

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* Harold Lounge cieldumort Sun Aug 20 2023 06:58 PM
. * * Re: 91L Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 20 2023 06:58 PM

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