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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx

Idalia Lounge
Wed Aug 23 2023 01:09 PM

Increasingly, models are warming up to the idea of a tropical cyclone forming somewhere off Central America either in or moving into the Atlantic side later this week.

ECMWF ensemble implied formation probability is up around 65%. On the other hand, the operational runs of the ECMWF have been inconsistent, tending to keep this Low on the weak side and linger it around the Yucatan without much development, and the operational GFS washes it out over central Amerca by the weekend.

Overall, conditions remain favorable for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic basin. Given this background state, model support and forecast locaton we are now starting a Lounge at this time on what is not yet Invest-tagged, but could be in a few days. Should this feature be assigned an Invest number the title will be updated.

There is a high chance that this well-forecast area of low pressure brings inclement weather to locations in and around the Western Caribbean to southern Gulf of Mexico, and based on modeling, a modest chance that it influences or impacts Florida by next week.

The area of interest in the northwest Caribbean has been assigned an Invest tag today, 93L, and the title has been updated accordingly.
TEN 8/26/23 5PM EDT - Ciel

Edited by MikeC (Sun Aug 27 2023 11:25 AM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Aug 23 2023 01:09 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Aug 29 2023 03:17 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	JMII	Tue Aug 29 2023 10:08 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Aug 29 2023 10:54 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Aug 28 2023 06:50 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	Rick31416	Tue Aug 29 2023 12:13 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Aug 28 2023 03:26 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	bob3d	Mon Aug 28 2023 06:24 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Aug 27 2023 11:41 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Aug 27 2023 08:44 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Aug 28 2023 01:52 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Aug 28 2023 02:22 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	Prospero	Mon Aug 28 2023 02:30 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Aug 28 2023 03:11 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Aug 27 2023 06:01 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	MichaelA	Sun Aug 27 2023 06:38 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	Prospero	Sun Aug 27 2023 08:02 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Aug 27 2023 03:24 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	OrlandoDan	Tue Aug 29 2023 08:51 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Aug 29 2023 10:55 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	JMII	Tue Aug 29 2023 01:53 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	HurricaneSteph	Tue Aug 29 2023 03:55 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Aug 29 2023 04:14 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	Rick31416	Tue Aug 29 2023 04:25 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Aug 29 2023 07:30 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	JMII	Wed Aug 30 2023 08:39 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	Kraig	Wed Aug 30 2023 12:12 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	IsoFlame	Wed Aug 30 2023 02:47 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	Sam568	Wed Aug 30 2023 09:17 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	JMII	Thu Aug 31 2023 11:14 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	Psyber	Tue Aug 29 2023 03:33 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	vineyardsaker	Tue Aug 29 2023 04:00 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Aug 29 2023 11:03 AM
Re: 93L Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Aug 26 2023 02:32 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	OrlandoDan	Sat Aug 26 2023 03:58 PM
Re: 93L Lounge DELETED DELETED	vineyardsaker	Sat Aug 26 2023 06:52 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	MikeC	Sat Aug 26 2023 07:40 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	MikeC	Sun Aug 27 2023 01:20 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	OrlandoDan	Sun Aug 27 2023 01:28 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Aug 27 2023 02:11 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	MikeC	Sun Aug 27 2023 01:42 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	OrlandoDan	Sun Aug 27 2023 03:46 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Aug 26 2023 09:54 AM
Re: 93L Lounge	MikeC	Fri Aug 25 2023 05:53 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	MikeC	Fri Aug 25 2023 09:36 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	MikeC	Sat Aug 26 2023 07:46 AM
Re: 93L Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Aug 25 2023 01:41 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	OrlandoDan	Fri Aug 25 2023 03:36 PM
WCarib Disturbance	cieldumort	Thu Aug 24 2023 09:19 PM
Re: Gulf/WCarib Later this Week	cieldumort	Wed Aug 23 2023 03:21 PM
Re: Gulf/WCarib Later this Week	bob3d	Thu Aug 24 2023 12:39 PM
Re: Gulf/WCarib Later this Week	cieldumort	Thu Aug 24 2023 03:06 PM

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