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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Reged:
Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 93L Lounge
      Sat Aug 26 2023 09:54 AM




First light helps confirm overnight ship and buoy reports that a small well-defined low-level vortext most likely exists under increasingly better-organized deep convection, and a tropical cyclone may already exist or presently be forming, somewhere about 21N 86W as of 26/1300z in the image above.

Smaller T.C.s can be especially challenging for models to identify and forecast, and at this point I would take any models that call for a weaker tropical cyclone in the Gulf with a grain of salt. With the especially favorable SSTs, things could ramp up quite a bit more.

Unfortunately for all, scatterometer has missed 93L for almost 24 hours, and recon won't be out until tomorrow.

There is possibly already a small core of winds to tropical storm force in the system.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Idalia Lounge cieldumort Sat Aug 26 2023 09:54 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Tue Aug 29 2023 03:17 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge JMII   Tue Aug 29 2023 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Aug 29 2023 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Mon Aug 28 2023 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Rick31416   Tue Aug 29 2023 12:13 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Mon Aug 28 2023 03:26 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge bob3d   Mon Aug 28 2023 06:24 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 27 2023 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 27 2023 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Aug 28 2023 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Aug 28 2023 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Prospero   Mon Aug 28 2023 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Aug 28 2023 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 27 2023 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge MichaelA   Sun Aug 27 2023 06:38 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Prospero   Sun Aug 27 2023 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 27 2023 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 29 2023 08:51 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Tue Aug 29 2023 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge JMII   Tue Aug 29 2023 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge HurricaneSteph   Tue Aug 29 2023 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Tue Aug 29 2023 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Rick31416   Tue Aug 29 2023 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Aug 29 2023 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge JMII   Wed Aug 30 2023 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Kraig   Wed Aug 30 2023 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Aug 30 2023 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Sam568   Wed Aug 30 2023 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge JMII   Thu Aug 31 2023 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Psyber   Tue Aug 29 2023 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge vineyardsaker   Tue Aug 29 2023 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Aug 29 2023 11:03 AM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge cieldumort   Sat Aug 26 2023 02:32 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge OrlandoDan   Sat Aug 26 2023 03:58 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge *DELETED* *DELETED* vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 26 2023 06:52 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 26 2023 07:40 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 27 2023 01:20 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Aug 27 2023 01:28 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 27 2023 02:11 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 27 2023 01:42 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Aug 27 2023 03:46 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge cieldumort   Sat Aug 26 2023 09:54 AM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2023 05:53 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2023 09:36 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 26 2023 07:46 AM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge cieldumort   Fri Aug 25 2023 01:41 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge OrlandoDan   Fri Aug 25 2023 03:36 PM
. * * WCarib Disturbance cieldumort   Thu Aug 24 2023 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Gulf/WCarib Later this Week cieldumort   Wed Aug 23 2023 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Gulf/WCarib Later this Week bob3d   Thu Aug 24 2023 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Gulf/WCarib Later this Week cieldumort   Thu Aug 24 2023 03:06 PM

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