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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 93L Lounge
      Sat Aug 26 2023 02:32 PM

#93L (Idalia-to-be if you will) is drifting about over deeply very warm waters in a steering current collapse left in Franklin's wake, and it may not be until about late Monday or Tuesday before a High in between the two becomes established enough to get 93L moving towards the coast in a meaningful way.

Idalia-to-be has an unpleasantly large window to intensify over exceptionally warm SSTs and in an environment of lower to low shear. The potential for this cyclone to Major is arguably well above average.

Here is my initial best guess lifetime Maximum Sustained Winds for Invest 93L (Future Idalia)

<35 KTS 1%
35-45 KTS 4%
50 KTS - 60 KTS 10%
Cat 1 15%
Cat 2 18%
Cat 3 22%
Cat 4 22%
Cat 5 8%

A little less confidence as usual for when I attempt to roll these out, entirely because as of now we have had no recon, and very sparse scatterometer data.

Looked at another way, I assign an 85% chance that 93L becomes a hurricane at some point - and a better than 50% chance that 93L Majors.

Interests from northern Yucatan to western Cuba to South Florida to Alabama could be at risk, as the future steering pattern is far from well understood. Having recon is ASAP will be a great benefit.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Idalia Lounge cieldumort Sat Aug 26 2023 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Tue Aug 29 2023 03:17 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge JMII   Tue Aug 29 2023 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Aug 29 2023 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Mon Aug 28 2023 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Rick31416   Tue Aug 29 2023 12:13 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Mon Aug 28 2023 03:26 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge bob3d   Mon Aug 28 2023 06:24 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 27 2023 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 27 2023 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Aug 28 2023 01:52 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Aug 28 2023 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Prospero   Mon Aug 28 2023 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Aug 28 2023 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 27 2023 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge MichaelA   Sun Aug 27 2023 06:38 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Prospero   Sun Aug 27 2023 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 27 2023 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 29 2023 08:51 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Tue Aug 29 2023 10:55 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge JMII   Tue Aug 29 2023 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge HurricaneSteph   Tue Aug 29 2023 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Tue Aug 29 2023 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Rick31416   Tue Aug 29 2023 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Aug 29 2023 07:30 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge JMII   Wed Aug 30 2023 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Kraig   Wed Aug 30 2023 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Aug 30 2023 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Sam568   Wed Aug 30 2023 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge JMII   Thu Aug 31 2023 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Psyber   Tue Aug 29 2023 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge vineyardsaker   Tue Aug 29 2023 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Aug 29 2023 11:03 AM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge cieldumort   Sat Aug 26 2023 02:32 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge OrlandoDan   Sat Aug 26 2023 03:58 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge *DELETED* *DELETED* vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 26 2023 06:52 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 26 2023 07:40 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 27 2023 01:20 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Aug 27 2023 01:28 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 27 2023 02:11 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 27 2023 01:42 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Aug 27 2023 03:46 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge cieldumort   Sat Aug 26 2023 09:54 AM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2023 05:53 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2023 09:36 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 26 2023 07:46 AM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge cieldumort   Fri Aug 25 2023 01:41 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge OrlandoDan   Fri Aug 25 2023 03:36 PM
. * * WCarib Disturbance cieldumort   Thu Aug 24 2023 09:19 PM
. * * Re: Gulf/WCarib Later this Week cieldumort   Wed Aug 23 2023 03:21 PM
. * * Re: Gulf/WCarib Later this Week bob3d   Thu Aug 24 2023 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Gulf/WCarib Later this Week cieldumort   Thu Aug 24 2023 03:06 PM

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