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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 293 (Idalia) , Major: 293 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 293 (Idalia) Major: 293 (Idalia)
Ptnl One
ADV#3 5:00 am EDT
21.3N 93.0W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
N at 6 mph
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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2315
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 93L Lounge
      Sun Aug 27 2023 06:11 PM

There looks to be a few reasons why rightward adjustments to the forecast track may be coming.


In general, there has been more of a blowup of convection downshear from the center and this is likely to continue off and on. What has occurred most recently isn't as much as a center jump per se, than more likely a cyclonic loop responding to the changing steering currents. But going forward, given the lopsided convection at present and forecasts of some on again off again modest northwesterly shear, one could expect a better chance of either center reformations or just simply adjustments downshear (to the east). All that said, a better chance is not saying such an outcome is certain. In addition, that northerly/northwesterly shear may be less than expected.

At this point, I'm all but ignoring 12z model runs myself (at least as far as Idalia is concerned). I want to see both the 18z and 0z runs before biting on anything.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Idalia Lounge cieldumort Sun Aug 27 2023 06:11 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Tue Aug 29 2023 07:17 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge JMII   Tue Aug 29 2023 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Aug 29 2023 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Mon Aug 28 2023 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Rick31416   Tue Aug 29 2023 04:13 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Mon Aug 28 2023 07:26 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge bob3d   Mon Aug 28 2023 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Mon Aug 28 2023 03:41 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Mon Aug 28 2023 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Aug 28 2023 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Aug 28 2023 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Prospero   Mon Aug 28 2023 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Mon Aug 28 2023 07:11 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 27 2023 10:01 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge MichaelA   Sun Aug 27 2023 10:38 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Prospero   Mon Aug 28 2023 12:02 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 27 2023 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 29 2023 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Tue Aug 29 2023 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge JMII   Tue Aug 29 2023 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge HurricaneSteph   Tue Aug 29 2023 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge cieldumort   Tue Aug 29 2023 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Rick31416   Tue Aug 29 2023 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Aug 29 2023 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge JMII   Wed Aug 30 2023 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Kraig   Wed Aug 30 2023 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Aug 30 2023 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Sam568   Thu Aug 31 2023 01:17 AM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge JMII   Thu Aug 31 2023 03:14 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge Psyber   Tue Aug 29 2023 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge vineyardsaker   Tue Aug 29 2023 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Idalia Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Aug 29 2023 03:03 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge cieldumort   Sat Aug 26 2023 06:32 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge OrlandoDan   Sat Aug 26 2023 07:58 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge *DELETED* *DELETED* vineyardsaker   Sat Aug 26 2023 10:52 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 26 2023 11:40 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 27 2023 05:20 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Aug 27 2023 05:28 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge cieldumort   Sun Aug 27 2023 06:11 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 27 2023 05:42 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge OrlandoDan   Sun Aug 27 2023 07:46 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge cieldumort   Sat Aug 26 2023 01:54 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 25 2023 09:53 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 26 2023 01:36 AM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 26 2023 11:46 AM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge cieldumort   Fri Aug 25 2023 05:41 PM
. * * Re: 93L Lounge OrlandoDan   Fri Aug 25 2023 07:36 PM
. * * WCarib Disturbance cieldumort   Fri Aug 25 2023 01:19 AM
. * * Re: Gulf/WCarib Later this Week cieldumort   Wed Aug 23 2023 07:21 PM
. * * Re: Gulf/WCarib Later this Week bob3d   Thu Aug 24 2023 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Gulf/WCarib Later this Week cieldumort   Thu Aug 24 2023 07:06 PM

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