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90L crossing over Florida with flooding rains, strong winds and brief tornadoes/spouts. Next week eyes turn to W Gulf in active June pattern

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 288 (Idalia) , Major: 288 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 288 (Idalia) Major: 288 (Idalia)

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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2311
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Idalia Lounge
Mon Aug 28 2023 07:26 AM

28/0z model runs ingested quite a bit of Hurricane Hunter data and as such are of greater interest

Vortex-scale hurricane models

0z HWRF - Initialized a touch too far northwest, but not horribly. Majors overnight Tuesday, becoming Cat 4 heading into landfall (in fact, 850hPa wind suggests a potential for gusts exceeding 150 KTS predawn Wednesday). Landfall as a Cat 3+ in vicinity of Redfish Point, Apalachee Bay Wednesday morning.

0z HMON - Also initialized a touch too far northeast, but not horribly. Majors Tuesday morning. High-end Cat 2 heading towards landfall overnight Tuesday. Landfalls in vicinity between Steinhatchee and Fish Creek early Wednesday morning probably about Cat 2.

0z HAFS-A Solid inititial location. Majors heading into landfall predawn Wednesday, with an apparent landfall location somewhere between Horseshoe Beach and Steinhatchee as a Major early Wednesday morning.

0z HAFS-B Solid initial location. Majors Tuesday evening. Cat 4s Tuesday overnight. Landfalls roughly southeast of St Marks in the Apalachee Bay Wednesday morning, seemingly Cat 2/3.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Aug 28 2023 07:26 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Aug 29 2023 07:17 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	JMII	Tue Aug 29 2023 02:08 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Aug 29 2023 02:54 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Aug 28 2023 10:50 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	Rick31416	Tue Aug 29 2023 04:13 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Aug 28 2023 07:26 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	bob3d	Mon Aug 28 2023 10:24 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Aug 28 2023 03:41 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Mon Aug 28 2023 12:44 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Aug 28 2023 05:52 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Aug 28 2023 06:22 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	Prospero	Mon Aug 28 2023 06:30 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Aug 28 2023 07:11 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Aug 27 2023 10:01 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	MichaelA	Sun Aug 27 2023 10:38 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	Prospero	Mon Aug 28 2023 12:02 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Aug 27 2023 07:24 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	OrlandoDan	Tue Aug 29 2023 12:51 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Aug 29 2023 02:55 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	JMII	Tue Aug 29 2023 05:53 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	HurricaneSteph	Tue Aug 29 2023 07:55 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Aug 29 2023 08:14 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	Rick31416	Tue Aug 29 2023 08:25 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Aug 29 2023 11:30 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	JMII	Wed Aug 30 2023 12:39 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	Kraig	Wed Aug 30 2023 04:12 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	IsoFlame	Wed Aug 30 2023 06:47 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	Sam568	Thu Aug 31 2023 01:17 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge	JMII	Thu Aug 31 2023 03:14 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	Psyber	Tue Aug 29 2023 07:33 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	vineyardsaker	Tue Aug 29 2023 08:00 PM
Re: Idalia Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Aug 29 2023 03:03 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Aug 26 2023 06:32 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	OrlandoDan	Sat Aug 26 2023 07:58 PM
Re: 93L Lounge DELETED DELETED	vineyardsaker	Sat Aug 26 2023 10:52 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	MikeC	Sat Aug 26 2023 11:40 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	MikeC	Sun Aug 27 2023 05:20 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	OrlandoDan	Sun Aug 27 2023 05:28 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	cieldumort	Sun Aug 27 2023 06:11 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	MikeC	Sun Aug 27 2023 05:42 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	OrlandoDan	Sun Aug 27 2023 07:46 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Aug 26 2023 01:54 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	MikeC	Fri Aug 25 2023 09:53 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	MikeC	Sat Aug 26 2023 01:36 AM
Re: 93L Lounge	MikeC	Sat Aug 26 2023 11:46 AM
Re: 93L Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Aug 25 2023 05:41 PM
Re: 93L Lounge	OrlandoDan	Fri Aug 25 2023 07:36 PM
WCarib Disturbance	cieldumort	Fri Aug 25 2023 01:19 AM
Re: Gulf/WCarib Later this Week	cieldumort	Wed Aug 23 2023 07:21 PM
Re: Gulf/WCarib Later this Week	bob3d	Thu Aug 24 2023 04:39 PM
Re: Gulf/WCarib Later this Week	cieldumort	Thu Aug 24 2023 07:06 PM

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