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Historic #HurricaneBeryl is now also the earliest #Cat 5 Hurricane in the Atlantic basin in recorded history
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 306 (Idalia) , Major: 306 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 306 (Idalia) Major: 306 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#13A 1:00 am EDT
13.4N 64.0W
Wind: 155MPH
Pres: 938mb
Moving:
Wnw at 21 mph
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Rem Chris
ADV#4 4:00 pm EDT
20.2N 97.8W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 7 mph
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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2341
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September?
      Mon Sep 04 2023 02:38 PM

This well-forecast system (Invest 95L officially now) has many days for us to keep an eye on and sure counts as a lower (but not very low) probability - higher (and maybe very high) impact risk.

Most models favor vigorous intensification in the Tropical Atlantic while 95L is still well east of the Antilles. Such would favor a more poleward, and hopefully fish-ward, recurveature. However, there's a fair chance 95L stays on the relatively weaker side, which would tend to favor a more southerly track earlier on and that could put islands and eventually the CONUS at greater risk of impact. There are even a few solutions that hint of a robust, expansive Bermuda High regardless of 95L's intensity a week from now.

I think that being the time frame for potential US land impacts is still in the 7-14 days out range, it really questions the limits the models' abilities to be anything more than noise. But, by the end of the coming week we should be able to put a lot more stock in them, especially once recon starts going in.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Lee Lounge IsoFlame Mon Sep 04 2023 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 09 2023 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic cieldumort   Sat Sep 09 2023 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 10 2023 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 12 2023 07:41 AM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 12 2023 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic JMII   Fri Sep 15 2023 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic cieldumort   Fri Sep 15 2023 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 13 2023 12:16 AM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge cieldumort   Thu Sep 07 2023 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge IsoFlame   Thu Sep 07 2023 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge Rick31416   Thu Sep 07 2023 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge JMII   Thu Sep 07 2023 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 09 2023 06:46 AM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge cieldumort   Tue Sep 05 2023 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 06 2023 06:38 AM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge JMII   Wed Sep 06 2023 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 07 2023 08:02 AM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge flanewscameraman   Thu Sep 07 2023 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge cieldumort   Tue Sep 05 2023 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge cieldumort   Tue Sep 05 2023 05:16 PM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge cieldumort   Tue Sep 05 2023 10:39 AM
. * * TD13 Robert   Tue Sep 05 2023 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September? cieldumort   Mon Sep 04 2023 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September? IsoFlame   Mon Sep 04 2023 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September? cieldumort   Mon Sep 04 2023 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September? IsoFlame   Tue Sep 05 2023 02:25 PM

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