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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2307
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September?
Mon Sep 04 2023 06:38 PM

This well-forecast system (Invest 95L officially now) has many days for us to keep an eye on and sure counts as a lower (but not very low) probability - higher (and maybe very high) impact risk.

Most models favor vigorous intensification in the Tropical Atlantic while 95L is still well east of the Antilles. Such would favor a more poleward, and hopefully fish-ward, recurveature. However, there's a fair chance 95L stays on the relatively weaker side, which would tend to favor a more southerly track earlier on and that could put islands and eventually the CONUS at greater risk of impact. There are even a few solutions that hint of a robust, expansive Bermuda High regardless of 95L's intensity a week from now.

I think that being the time frame for potential US land impacts is still in the 7-14 days out range, it really questions the limits the models' abilities to be anything more than noise. But, by the end of the coming week we should be able to put a lot more stock in them, especially once recon starts going in.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Lee Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Sep 04 2023 06:38 PM
Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic	MikeC	Sat Sep 09 2023 07:28 PM
Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic	cieldumort	Sat Sep 09 2023 08:29 PM
Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic	MikeC	Sun Sep 10 2023 06:11 PM
Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic	MikeC	Tue Sep 12 2023 11:41 AM
Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic	MikeC	Wed Sep 13 2023 02:54 AM
Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic	JMII	Fri Sep 15 2023 12:10 PM
Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic	cieldumort	Fri Sep 15 2023 06:21 PM
Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic	MikeC	Wed Sep 13 2023 04:16 AM
Re: Lee Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Sep 07 2023 11:32 PM
Re: Lee Lounge	IsoFlame	Fri Sep 08 2023 01:57 AM
Re: Lee Lounge	Rick31416	Fri Sep 08 2023 03:13 AM
Re: Lee Lounge	JMII	Fri Sep 08 2023 03:28 AM
Re: Lee Lounge	MikeC	Sat Sep 09 2023 10:46 AM
Re: Lee Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Sep 06 2023 01:35 AM
Re: Lee Lounge	MikeC	Wed Sep 06 2023 10:38 AM
Re: Lee Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 06 2023 03:02 PM
Re: Lee Lounge	MikeC	Thu Sep 07 2023 12:02 PM
Re: Lee Lounge	flanewscameraman	Thu Sep 07 2023 10:03 PM
Re: Lee Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Sep 06 2023 01:02 AM
Re: Lee Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Sep 05 2023 09:16 PM
Re: 95L Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Sep 05 2023 02:39 PM
TD13	Robert	Tue Sep 05 2023 06:15 PM
Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September?	cieldumort	Mon Sep 04 2023 06:38 PM
Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September?	IsoFlame	Mon Sep 04 2023 08:41 PM
Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September?	cieldumort	Mon Sep 04 2023 10:01 PM
Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September?	IsoFlame	Tue Sep 05 2023 06:25 PM

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