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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 298 (Idalia) , Major: 298 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 298 (Idalia) Major: 298 (Idalia)
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September?
      Mon Sep 04 2023 06:01 PM

Quote:

I thought most models handled Idalia's track and intensity amazingly well a week in advance before the system organized and recon was available



Depends on the model \_(ツ)_/¯

One week prior to Idalia's landfall was a mixed bag as to whether or not there would even be an Invest-able disturbance in the Caribbean/Gulf region on Wednesday August 30, let alone landfall location of a hurricane. ECMWF did exceptionally well, but others increasingly did not. Idalia wasn't even on the GFS radar then, and an Invest tagged system had even yet to be assigned to the dynamic track and intensity models HWRF, HMON and HAFS.

Model ability to accurately predict the synoptic scale steering flow especially after 10 days but even within the 7-10 day window is pretty limited. No doubt that 95L will be named and most likely become a Major, but GFS calling for a major very near the Florida east coast two weeks out is a possible outcome, but of dubious reliability.

95L has some scary dangerous potential if it heads to land. Certainly one to watch closely.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Lee Lounge IsoFlame Mon Sep 04 2023 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 09 2023 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic cieldumort   Sat Sep 09 2023 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Sun Sep 10 2023 02:11 PM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 12 2023 07:41 AM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 12 2023 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic JMII   Fri Sep 15 2023 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic cieldumort   Fri Sep 15 2023 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 13 2023 12:16 AM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge cieldumort   Thu Sep 07 2023 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge IsoFlame   Thu Sep 07 2023 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge Rick31416   Thu Sep 07 2023 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge JMII   Thu Sep 07 2023 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 09 2023 06:46 AM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge cieldumort   Tue Sep 05 2023 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 06 2023 06:38 AM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge JMII   Wed Sep 06 2023 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 07 2023 08:02 AM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge flanewscameraman   Thu Sep 07 2023 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge cieldumort   Tue Sep 05 2023 09:02 PM
. * * Re: Lee Lounge cieldumort   Tue Sep 05 2023 05:16 PM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge cieldumort   Tue Sep 05 2023 10:39 AM
. * * TD13 Robert   Tue Sep 05 2023 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September? cieldumort   Mon Sep 04 2023 02:38 PM
. * * Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September? IsoFlame   Mon Sep 04 2023 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September? cieldumort   Mon Sep 04 2023 06:01 PM
. * * Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September? IsoFlame   Tue Sep 05 2023 02:25 PM

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