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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 290 (Idalia) , Major: 290 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 290 (Idalia) Major: 290 (Idalia)

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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge

IsoFlame
Weather Analyst

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Posts: 298
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...

Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September?
Tue Sep 05 2023 06:25 PM

Model ability to accurately predict the synoptic scale steering flow especially after 10 days but even within the 7-10 day window is pretty limited. No doubt that 95L will be named and most likely become a Major, but GFS calling for a major very near the Florida east coast two weeks out is a possible outcome, but of dubious reliability.

95L has some scary dangerous potential if it heads to land. Certainly one to watch closely.

Definitely. The different models have differing ability to discern change over time, and each TC present unique challenges, 5-7 days out is where I look consensus. 3-5 days I look for model to fine-tune the cone of impact.

I did not have great trust in models for Andrew, Floyd and Dorian- the 3 majors tracking toward Florida that were of great concern until passage. ATM, this one has my undivided attention, even though latest modeling suggest re-curvature well to the east. If timing allows a strong high pressure ridge to set up north of the TC as it re-curves WNW/NW to the east of the Bahamas, a stair-step westward toward the Florida peninsula, or elsewhere along the east coast, could be a possibility.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Lee Lounge	IsoFlame	Tue Sep 05 2023 06:25 PM
Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic	MikeC	Sat Sep 09 2023 07:28 PM
Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic	cieldumort	Sat Sep 09 2023 08:29 PM
Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic	MikeC	Sun Sep 10 2023 06:11 PM
Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic	MikeC	Tue Sep 12 2023 11:41 AM
Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic	MikeC	Wed Sep 13 2023 02:54 AM
Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic	JMII	Fri Sep 15 2023 12:10 PM
Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic	cieldumort	Fri Sep 15 2023 06:21 PM
Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic	MikeC	Wed Sep 13 2023 04:16 AM
Re: Lee Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Sep 07 2023 11:32 PM
Re: Lee Lounge	IsoFlame	Fri Sep 08 2023 01:57 AM
Re: Lee Lounge	Rick31416	Fri Sep 08 2023 03:13 AM
Re: Lee Lounge	JMII	Fri Sep 08 2023 03:28 AM
Re: Lee Lounge	MikeC	Sat Sep 09 2023 10:46 AM
Re: Lee Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Sep 06 2023 01:35 AM
Re: Lee Lounge	MikeC	Wed Sep 06 2023 10:38 AM
Re: Lee Lounge	JMII	Wed Sep 06 2023 03:02 PM
Re: Lee Lounge	MikeC	Thu Sep 07 2023 12:02 PM
Re: Lee Lounge	flanewscameraman	Thu Sep 07 2023 10:03 PM
Re: Lee Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Sep 06 2023 01:02 AM
Re: Lee Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Sep 05 2023 09:16 PM
Re: 95L Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Sep 05 2023 02:39 PM
TD13	Robert	Tue Sep 05 2023 06:15 PM
Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September?	cieldumort	Mon Sep 04 2023 06:38 PM
Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September?	IsoFlame	Mon Sep 04 2023 08:41 PM
Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September?	cieldumort	Mon Sep 04 2023 10:01 PM
Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September?	IsoFlame	Tue Sep 05 2023 06:25 PM

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