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GFS Today's 12z run of the GFS has the lead low presently centered south of the Cabos tracking sharply northwest behind Margo, and instead fully locks on do the wave about to roll off west Africa as the sole and primary. It develops this second wave into another long-track CV, recurving well east of Florida and end of run is about 400 miles east of Delaware.

Seems like a good time to mention that beyond 120 hours with a system that hasn't even yet been flagged with an Invest tag is almost quackery, but adding the additional end-of-run info for a complete picture.

ICON keeps the lead low very weak and slows it down while shearing it out, allowing the eastern wave to absorb it and developing.

GEM also appears to keep the lead low very weak and has it overtaken by the larger wave east of it, developing by next Saturday before reaching 50W.

ECMWF It is less clear whether the EURO has the lead low overtaken or not, but in any event it seems to use it as the nucleus for a future Nigel which heads W-WNW over the next 7 days without much appreciable organization beyond perhaps a large T.D. (which does argue for the lead low being overtaken by the larger wave to its east), and then Tropical Storm (Nigel?) by Saturday the 16th while west of 45W and south of 25N.

It is worth adding that the 0z EURO ensemble implied probability for the lead low "nucleus" to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 72 hours is about 65%.

Edit: 12z EURO ensemble implied probability of genesis within 72 hours is now up to 75% on the lead low/nucleus.

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Sep 09 2023 04:11 PM)

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