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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.**
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)
 


Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge

IsoFlame
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: 97L - 98L Lounge
      Tue Sep 12 2023 02:06 PM

In the wake of Lee's weekend jaunt through the Canadian Maritime, I'm wondering if high pressure will eventually build next week, then strengthen as a re-enforcing high builds southward the following weekend, eventually setting up a 1030 mb (or stronger) ridge over and offshore from New England, possibly extending down the eastern seaboard the following week (as indicated by some modeling). If the high centers off the mid-Atlantic coast later in the month, it should effectively block any approaching TC and cut off the western Atlantic's "freeway" of Major re-curving hurricanes. Hopefully, none of the distant areas of concern progressing across the central Atlantic will gain longitude (before latitude) and possibly be blocked from re-curving well out to sea.

It's getting to be the time of year for strong/cool high pressure to eventually build southward down the eastern seaboard, along with the possibility of a stalled frontal boundary to lay up over the northern Gulf and extend across north Fla. It would not be of great surprise to me if "home-grown" tropical cyclogenesis occurs toward the end of Sept over the very warm waters of the GOMEX, SW Atlantic and western Caribbean.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* TD15 Lounge cieldumort Tue Sep 12 2023 02:06 PM
. * * Re: 97L - 98L Lounge cieldumort   Wed Sep 13 2023 04:38 PM
. * * Re: 97L - 98L Lounge cieldumort   Mon Sep 11 2023 11:51 PM
. * * Re: 97L - 98L Lounge IsoFlame   Tue Sep 12 2023 02:06 PM
. * * Re: Low/Wave Pair Far Eastern Atlantic cieldumort   Sat Sep 09 2023 04:27 PM

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