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Invest 95L in the Tropical Atlantic now has a 90% chance to develop over the next 7 days, and a 70% chance to do so in the next 48 hours. Recon scheduled for Sunday morning.a
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 302 (Idalia) , Major: 302 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 302 (Idalia) Major: 302 (Idalia)
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 303
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: TC along stalled front next week?
      Sun Sep 17 2023 05:47 PM

From this afternoon's discussion:

A cold front will move off the northeastern Florida coast tonight, reaching from 31N72W to near Jupiter, Florida Tue morning, then stalling along 28N/29N through the end of the week. Winds may increase west of the stalled front by the end of the week as a tight pressure gradient develops due to a building high inland and a developing coastal trough off the Carolinas.

No mention of yet in the discussion or 7-day outlook, but if the coastal trough pulls off the coast far enough and sits for several days, a closed low could develop then feed off the un-worked over seasonal peak SST's north of the Bahamas and east of Florida. Not sure if shear and/or dry air associated with weak high pressure over the SE US will be negatives for development, but there will be plenty of moist tropical air along and south of the stalled frontal boundary.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ophelia Lounge IsoFlame Sun Sep 17 2023 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Lounge cieldumort   Fri Sep 22 2023 06:08 PM
. * * Re: SIXTEEN cieldumort   Thu Sep 21 2023 12:08 PM
. * * Re: TC along stalled front next week? Keith B   Sun Sep 17 2023 06:41 AM
. * * Re: TC along stalled front next week? IsoFlame   Sun Sep 17 2023 05:47 PM
. * * Re: TC along stalled front next week? Keith B   Sun Sep 17 2023 08:34 PM

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