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Historic #HurricaneBeryl now in the Caribbean with a day or few left before shear is expected to increase. Elsewhere, Invest 96L is not doing so well.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 306 (Idalia) , Major: 306 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 306 (Idalia) Major: 306 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#13 10:00 pm EDT
13.2N 63.2W
Wind: 150MPH
Pres: 944mb
Moving:
Wnw at 21 mph
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Rem Chris
ADV#4 4:00 pm EDT
20.2N 97.8W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
Wnw at 7 mph
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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2339
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Ptnl W Moving CV Storm this Week
      Wed Sep 20 2023 02:23 AM


Above Total Precipitable Water (MIMIC-TPW2) of this wave, taken at 09/20/23/05z

"MIMIC-TPW2 is an experimental global product of total precipitable water (TPW), using morphological compositing of the MIRS retrieval from several available operational microwave-frequency sensors." ~ About the MIMIC-TPW2 product

The wave now just coming off the coast of west Africa continues to have model support for a southerly track, at least initially, with the GFS increasingly most emphatic. However, now is probably a good time to mention that global model track runs beyond 7-10 days are often wildly unreliable, and the GFS may also be displaying some southerly bias of late.

Caveats provided, here are some 0z runs from 9/20 as they come in up to 7 days out

Models at 7 days out from 09/20/0z
GFS: 974mb Hurricane just about 75 miles or so east of the Windward Islands, roughly along the same latitude as the southernmost Commonwealth of Dominica at 0z Wednesday Sep 27.

GEM: Nearly in the same location as the GFS at this exact time, but only as a 1008mb open wave.

ICON: Lagging behind the GFS and Canadian above, located around 15.5N 55.5W as a 1005mb Wave/TD/low-end TS.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Philippe Lounge cieldumort Wed Sep 20 2023 02:23 AM
. * * Re: Philippe Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 07 2023 01:50 AM
. * * Re: Philippe Lounge cieldumort   Wed Sep 27 2023 03:46 AM
. * * Re: Ptnl W Moving CV Storm this Week cieldumort   Wed Sep 20 2023 02:42 AM
. * * Re: Ptnl W Moving CV Storm this Week cieldumort   Wed Sep 20 2023 02:23 AM

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