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With today's 5PM NHC #HurricaneBeryl update, the U.S. is now officially in the cone for the first time. Jamaica to Mexico to Texas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 309 (Idalia) , Major: 309 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 309 (Idalia) Major: 309 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#24 4:00 pm EDT
19.0N 82.6W
Wind: 115MPH
Pres: 971mb
Moving:
Wnw at 18 mph
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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2343
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: SIXTEEN
      Thu Sep 21 2023 12:08 PM

Recent Cyclone Phase modeling has largely forecast that SIXTEEN will straddle the line for quite a while between something that could at least casually be called a tropical cyclone, and something else. Most runs from most models have kept SIXTEEN on the asymmetric and neutral to cold core side of things (more non-tropical). However, judging from this morning's visible satellite images, those runs may be underdoing things a bit, and this is probably why NHC didn't waste any time going from 50% to PTC with watches and warnings at 11 this morning.

As a practical matter, SIXTEEN's impacts over water, along and near the coastlines, will largely be that of a tropical storm regardless of how SIXTEEN winds up technically. It is fair to call the system a developing "Tropical Cyclone-like" coastal low, and NHC does in fact make mention of this"
Quote:

"Although it is unclear as to whether the cyclone detaches from a front that is forecast to extend northeastward from the center, the guidance suggests a tropical-cyclone like core and structure when it nears the coast."



There is also a modest but real chance SIXTEEN becomes a hurricane.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Ophelia Lounge IsoFlame Thu Sep 21 2023 12:08 PM
. * * Re: Ophelia Lounge cieldumort   Fri Sep 22 2023 06:08 PM
. * * Re: SIXTEEN cieldumort   Thu Sep 21 2023 12:08 PM
. * * Re: TC along stalled front next week? Keith B   Sun Sep 17 2023 06:41 AM
. * * Re: TC along stalled front next week? IsoFlame   Sun Sep 17 2023 05:47 PM
. * * Re: TC along stalled front next week? Keith B   Sun Sep 17 2023 08:34 PM

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