Philippe Lounge - FLHurricane.com

Despite insistence from both the GFS and ECMWF that Philippe will essentially fall apart within 72 hours to become a post-tropical cyclone or remnant low, the system has shown some fight tonight, prompting NHC to actually expand the region of tropical storm force winds in the northeast quadrant with the 11PM Advisory. Of particular interest however, is modeling that points to Philippe, or its remnant, coming back to life after a spell, and potentially posing some danger to the northern Caribbean islands.

A rundown of 09/27/0Z hurricane-centered model runs as follows:

HWRF - Strong Tropical Storm located about 75 miles north of Anguilla at the end of run (06Z Oct 2nd)
HMON - Strong Tropical Storm located less than 20 miles southeast of Barbuda at the end of run (06Z Oct 2nd)
HAFS-A Hurricane less than 15 miles northwest of Barbuda at 18z Oct 1st, tracking just south of due west to end of run, still as a hurricane, at 06Z Oct 2nd.
HAFS-B Weakens to a blustery and wet open wave/TD/remnant low crossing through the northern Caribbean. 997mb wave/low centered just south of Hispaniola at the end of run (06z Oct 2nd).

As noted at the open, the GFS and ECMWF aren't having any of that, and wash the system out in short order with no coming back to life.

Time will tell with Philippe

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