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#BERYL HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES From mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 311 (Idalia) , Major: 311 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 311 (Idalia) Major: 311 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#31A 1:00 pm EDT
22.7N 91.9W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Wnw at 12 mph
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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2346
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 94L Lounge
      Thu Oct 12 2023 05:22 PM

Models increasingly wash out Sean to the northwest of 94L without creating much of an escape hatch for 94L behind him, and instead build high pressure in his place, expanding well to the west, keeping 94L on a generally west to west-northwest heading for several days.

There is strong unanimity among the global models today in this scenario, which could put the eastern Caribbean islands at risk next week should these forecasts hold, and especially so should the more southern ensemble members verify better.

Here are the 12z Ensemble member plots for both the GFS and ECMWF (Cr. Weathernerds)






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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tammy Lounge cieldumort Thu Oct 12 2023 05:22 PM
. * * Re: Tammy Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 21 2023 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Tammy Lounge IdaliaJackson   Thu Oct 19 2023 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Tammy Lounge cieldumort   Fri Oct 20 2023 02:08 AM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge cieldumort   Thu Oct 12 2023 05:22 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge cieldumort   Fri Oct 13 2023 12:54 PM

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