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#BERYL HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES From mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 311 (Idalia) , Major: 311 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 311 (Idalia) Major: 311 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#31A 1:00 pm EDT
22.7N 91.9W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Wnw at 12 mph
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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2346
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 94L Lounge
      Fri Oct 13 2023 12:54 PM

Some flip-flopping today, with more models trending to 94L finding itself a way out to recurve before reaching the Caribbean.

Some 12z runs so far:

The GFS may have a northward bias as to where TC genesis occurs within the broad low that is 94L. This remains to be seen if it verifies, but in any event, this run has 94L then as a TD or TS forming and recurving well east of the islands next Saturday, the 21st.


The Canadian model develops 94L quicker than the GFS, and perhaps in response to this and Sean's early departure, builds high pressure back in, steering the strengthening tropical cyclone into the Caribbean by next Friday as a hurricane.

The German ICON develops 94L earlier like the Canadian model, but then intensifies the cyclone much more rapidly, and with this deeper vortex, begins pulling poleward prior to reaching the Caribbean as a strong hurricane.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tammy Lounge cieldumort Fri Oct 13 2023 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Tammy Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 21 2023 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Tammy Lounge IdaliaJackson   Thu Oct 19 2023 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Tammy Lounge cieldumort   Fri Oct 20 2023 02:08 AM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge cieldumort   Thu Oct 12 2023 05:22 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge cieldumort   Fri Oct 13 2023 12:54 PM

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