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#BERYL HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES From mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 311 (Idalia) , Major: 311 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 311 (Idalia) Major: 311 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#32 4:00 pm EDT
23.0N 92.3W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 997mb
Moving:
Wnw at 12 mph
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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2346
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tammy Lounge
      Sat Oct 21 2023 12:21 PM

There are some significant model differences beyond Day 3, with a lot of this starting in how the next three days evolve. Some models like the EURO, favor both a shallower Tammy and weaker approaching trof from the west, and have wanted to keep Tammy locked in and trending left of north overall. Others like the GFS, just about the opposite. As NHC pointed out in the 11AM Discussion, the model spread is a whopping 900m at Day 5.


Ultimately, a lot of this may come down to timing, as both Tammy's depth and forward speed have fluctuated off and on, and the approaching trof may or may not catch the cyclone enough to send Tammy off into the wide open Atlantic. Several runs of late have included hooks or loops back towards Bermuda and even the CONUS, but with such a wide spread and at so many days out (now talking 5-14), hard to have much confidence in any one of these solutions until there is a better handle on Tammy's structure, track and forward speed in the near term, as well as these of the approaching trof coming off the east coast.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tammy Lounge cieldumort Sat Oct 21 2023 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Tammy Lounge cieldumort   Sat Oct 21 2023 12:21 PM
. * * Re: Tammy Lounge IdaliaJackson   Thu Oct 19 2023 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Tammy Lounge cieldumort   Fri Oct 20 2023 02:08 AM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge cieldumort   Thu Oct 12 2023 05:22 PM
. * * Re: 94L Lounge cieldumort   Fri Oct 13 2023 12:54 PM

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