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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
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Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Tammy Lounge
Sat Oct 21 2023 12:21 PM

There are some significant model differences beyond Day 3, with a lot of this starting in how the next three days evolve. Some models like the EURO, favor both a shallower Tammy and weaker approaching trof from the west, and have wanted to keep Tammy locked in and trending left of north overall. Others like the GFS, just about the opposite. As NHC pointed out in the 11AM Discussion, the model spread is a whopping 900m at Day 5.

Ultimately, a lot of this may come down to timing, as both Tammy's depth and forward speed have fluctuated off and on, and the approaching trof may or may not catch the cyclone enough to send Tammy off into the wide open Atlantic. Several runs of late have included hooks or loops back towards Bermuda and even the CONUS, but with such a wide spread and at so many days out (now talking 5-14), hard to have much confidence in any one of these solutions until there is a better handle on Tammy's structure, track and forward speed in the near term, as well as these of the approaching trof coming off the east coast.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tammy Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Oct 21 2023 12:21 PM
Re: Tammy Lounge	cieldumort	Sat Oct 21 2023 12:21 PM
Re: Tammy Lounge	IdaliaJackson	Thu Oct 19 2023 12:44 PM
Re: Tammy Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Oct 20 2023 02:08 AM
Re: 94L Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Oct 12 2023 05:22 PM
Re: 94L Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Oct 13 2023 12:54 PM

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