cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2497
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
Re: South Caribbean Low
Sat Oct 21 2023 12:48 PM
|
|
|
Like Tammy, this is another feature with some model runs indicating a propensity to stick around. In Tammy's case, there is already a well-formed tropical cyclone. In the case of this disturbance, this is a broad low already very land-locked and producing copious rains.
Should this Caribbean Low just linger, it may not matter one bit to those in central America whether it gets a name or not. The potential for persistent, heavy rains could make for a lot of flooding. Presently, it does not appear that the Low is getting much better organized this morning, but this could change as soon as later today. Next week, an approaching wave from the east (Wave Lounge) may interact with this system, developed or not, and further influence its prospects for development and track.
Some overviews of the 12z model runs out today:
GFS: Tropical Depression or storm by Sunday night (0z Oct 23) in the extreme southwestern Caribbean while about 150 miles or so east of the Costa Rica/Nicaragua boarder. Landfall late Monday around the boarder of Costa Rica & Nicaragua, then slowly crosses over this landmass and enters the Pacific side of these nations by late Wednesday, continuing a potentially serious flood threat before becoming an East Pac TC and heading northwest on Thursday.
Canadian: Possibly a TD by Monday while just east of the Costa Rica/Nicaragua boarder. Slowly crosses central America (again, flood risks), and redevelops while just south of El Salvador on Wednesday or Thursday, becoming an E Pac system that heads northwest.
ICON: Never develops this beyond perhaps a TD and keeps it meandering about over the waters of extreme southern Caribbean, or just inland, for the next 180 hours (end of model run). Once more, potentially a flood maker.
While not seen in these particular 12z runs out today, several earlier runs of these or other models indicated that the stout wave now approaching the Lesser Antilles interacts with this feature and spins up a TC in the central Caribbean, north of the disturbance's current location.
|
|
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Edit
Reply
Quote
