cieldumort
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Posts: 2306
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: 95L Lounge
Mon Oct 23 2023 05:28 PM
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This tropical low continues slowly developing and may already be a tropical cyclone, although it is not entirely clear given the dearth of sensors in this region, few Scatterometer passes and no recon. For all practical intents and purposes, the low should be treated as a 35-38 MPH TD, given that weather conditions are now basically the same.
Generally, models continue to linger 95L around Central America in some form or another. The longer it lingers, the greater the threats from flash flooding go up, as well as the greater the eventual possibility of the system being pulled up towards the US.
Some 12 Runs:
GFS - Borderline TD straddling in and out of Nicaragua for the next day or two before ending up in the East Pac, still moving slowly eventually northwest. Heavy rain maker for several days.
GEM - Generally like the GFS in the first 48 hours, but then rather than heading further out into the EPAC, hugs the coastline for days on end, drenching Central America in rounds and rounds of tropical rains. By early next month, November 1st, this run plops 95L, or by then a named system, into the westernmost Caribbean as a remnant low or TD.
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