cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2306
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
Re: 97L Lounge
Tue Oct 31 2023 05:35 PM
|
|
|
A crowded field in the western Atlantic and far eastern Pacific, within limited bands of favorable conditions, is probably complicating things further for 97L. Frankly, 96L (which has been dropped by NHC altogether for development odds) and the non-tagged weak low now just south of Cuba, look much healthier. Still, 97L is forecast to track west, towards the western or southwestern Caribbean, where conditions for development could be more favorable.
A quick summary of some of today's 12z Global runs currently out:
GFS: Sends a broad area of w-e elongated low pressure towards central America and lingers it, without any apparent significant development, along the coast of, over, or either side of Central America, where 97L either washes out, or possibly merges with the approach of another disturbance from the west during the middle of November to cook something up near Belize. Basically, this is a bust run for 97L. The disturbance, for all practical intents and purposes, is lost after this weekend. It is worth noting however, that this could still imply a serious rain-maker for central America.
GEM: Sends a broad area of low pressure towards Central America, where over next weekend, it washes out.
ICON: Appears to merge 97L with the weak low now centered south of Cuba and cooks up what might be a broad TD that moves into Central America Saturday Nov 4
Early indications of more buy-in from hurricane models, but they're likely less reliable unless and until there is an actual vortex worth tracking, which as of now, there is not.
|
|
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Edit
Reply
Quote
