cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: 2024 Predictions
Fri May 31 2024 09:36 PM
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My read of the preseason predictors suggests roughly 75% odds of an above-average to record-setting season this year, about a one-in-five chance of an average season, and a very low but non-zero chance of a below-average season. I think the factor that could most impede or even prevent a very active season is the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), which is notoriously hard to predict this early but that doesn't seem particularly in play, at least not yet.
While an important caveat to the above is that high numbers of named storms, hurricanes and majors does not necessarily equate to a higher number of US landfalls, my read of the preseason predictors also suggests roughly 90% odds of at least average numbers of US landfalls, with better than 60% odds of above-average landfalls covering all of the following locations: Caribbean, eastern Mexico, Gulf Coast states, US eastern seaboard, as well as eastern Canada and western Europe. Systems that could strike eastern Canada and western Europe would more likely be undergoing post-tropical transition, but be potentially still strong.
For the purpose of our 2024 preseason contest, my modified and updated method comes out with: 28 Depressions, 26 Storms, 13 Hurricanes and 5 Majors.
I see a most-likely (67% odds) range of 24-36 Depressions, 22-34 Storms, 10-16 Hurricanes and 4-8 Majors, with a season ACE of 204 ± 40.
26 Storms 13 Hurricanes 5 Majors
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